Every Wednesday, we’ll offer up comparable players (or stats or strategies or whatever), reveal our preference, and provide an analysis to support it.
Draft Mike Aviles (SS), Not Michael Young (SS)
Everyone knows the value of drafting quality middle infielders. However, what happens when you miss out on the top shortstop options? When Ramirez, Rollins, and Reyes are off the board, where do you turn?
For years, Michael Young has been a consistent and reliable option. However, in my experience he’s been constantly overvalued. Personally, I’ll take my chances with Mike Aviles before I draft Young this year.
First, please note that I’m not saying they’re the same player. There are noticeable differences, and Young still has value. However, after looking at their ADP, I think that by passing on Young and going for Aviles, you can better your team by taking someone else at the spot where Young is commonly taken (about 72 for Young and 134 for Aviles, according to Couch Managers). Here’s why.
Michael Young
Young obviously has Aviles beaten in a proven track record. Young has averaged a stat line of .300/93/14/82/9 over his eight full seasons, and his three-year average from ’06 to ’08 is slightly better at .304/92/12/93/10. However, his stats point to an overall decline, which could affect his fantasy stats any year now.
Young has seen power drops across the board. His career SLG is .442, but over the last four years he’s had a noticeable drop: .513, .459, .418, and finally .402 in 2008. Ron Shandler’s linear weighted power index (PX) shows a similar drop: 111, 94, 74, 80. Bill James’s runs created is heading in the same direction: 131, 120, 107, 86. And here’s the stat that surprised and concerns me the most: Over his career, Young has hit 56% of his home runs at home. However, over the last three years, he’s hit 80% at home. Eighty percent! If you had taken Young out of Texas last year and put him in even a neutral park, can you imagine the drop in power he would have had? This issue is especially important right now, considering he’s demanding to be traded out of Texas. And even if you want to cling to the belief that his batting average drop was an aberration, I’ve got bad news for you: His expected batting average (xBA) has been dropping as well over the last four years: .313, .303, .287, .274.
Mike Aviles
With the possible drop of Young’s ability, Mike Aviles becomes the better bet. In 2008 he put up a stat line of .325/68/10/51/8 in 419 AB, and if you translate that to a fuller season of 550 AB, you get .325/89/13/67/10. Aside from the RBI, that’s right in line with Young’s production, and Aviles beat Young in BA (and OBP and SLG) last year. While it’s unreasonable to expect Aviles to repeat his extremely high BA, there are signs of overall growth. In his two and half years at AAA, he had noticeable increases in BA, OBP, and SLG, and his momentum obviously transferred to the bigs. Despite the fact that his hit percentage isn’t very high, he has a high contact percentage (88%) that was better than Young’s (83%), and it could help keep his BA above .290. Also, Aviles managed to post a base performance value (BPV) of 56, which is better than Young’s last three years (55, 45, 39).
There’s actually some variance between the projections of Bill James and Ron Shandler regarding Aviles’s 2009 season. James (.288/78/14/72/10) likes him more than Shandler does (.277/75/12/66/9), and I side with James here. I’d rather take the chance on a possible breakout candidate than on a good-but-not-great veteran who is on the wrong side of the age hill and has serious concerns about his power production. When you factor in the large difference in ADP, this one’s a no-brainer.
Who would you rather have if you account for a change in draft position?
Again, just being lazy and not looking it up myself... but will Aviles still be 2B eligible? I know there's talk of moving Young to another position, but Aviles at 2B and SS was another benefit. And, I'll dare to say it, KC is looking better and better these days. Depending on where Young goes, that's another factor.
ReplyDeleteAviles had 28 games at 2B and 91 at SS. He will maintain eligibility at both and makes a great play at either spot.
ReplyDeleteI don't know about KC though. The team has an awful outfield and even adding Coco doesn't help that they aren't very good at getting on base. The infield should be OK as long as Alex Gordon comes through, but they are still a long way away.