This as a weekly article running every Tuesday here at Roto Savants. I have gotten some questions about players, but if you have minor league drafts and want someone reviewed, let me know and I will put them at the top of the list.
Carlos Carrasco - SP - Philadelphia Phillies
Injury and Health
Carrasco has had no injury concerns yet, but after struggling in his call up to AA in 2006 he began to throw harder and put himself in added stress. This could be something to note, as he seems to respond to adversity by overthrowing. I don't have him as an injury risk, though, and he should fill in to his body and gain more strength.
Skill Set
Carrasco had a tough time in AA in 2006 and 2007, but he proceeded to be extremely dominant at AAA when given a shot last year. His K/9 was below 9 at every level before, but in 36.2 IP he had a K/9 of 11.29. His K/BB has also been borderline except for 2006, where it was poor. Then in 2008 it rose to 3.54.
I would prefer to see him do this for a more extended time, but his scouting report is looking for more of this. He has three big league ready pitches and is known for the smarts to pitch to a hitter. The Scouting Book ranked him as the 8th major league prospect on 1/26/09.
Here is a video with Carrasco discussing his changeup.
Major League ETA
Carrasco is looking like a strong bet to make an impact this year. The only question is whether he gets called up early enough to have a strong impact on fantasy, or whether he will be up in September with most leagues decided or too close to trust to a rookie. He has been listed as one of four to be a candidate for the #5 SP job with the Phillies this year, but the Phillies would likely go with Kyle Kendrick or JA Happ first, as they have more experience.
Conclusion and Advice
Only CHONE has a projection for him, and it's not great with a 4.88 ERA in 129 IP, but I don't really see that many innings unless there is an injury early in the season. I see 100 innings as the ceiling this year, and I also don't like the HR/9 CHONE gives him. Carrasco is your leading pickup if and when given a job with the Phils. Even with the hitters park for a home stadium, he is an immediate impact candidate.
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