Every Wednesday, we’ll offer up comparable players (or stats or strategies or whatever), reveal our preference, and provide an analysis to support it.
It seems there’s never a shortage of slugging first basemen out there. The problem lies in deciphering the value of these players, looking for the little differences that separate them. This week, I suggest readers take Adrian Gonzalez over Justin Morneau.
Statistically, both men are very comparable over the last three years. Gonzalez’s three-year average is .288/96/30/100, and Morneau’s is .296/93/29/123. Morneau has the better eye and OBP, and he has the better supporting cast in Minnesota, which accounts for his higher RBI average. There’s certainly nothing wrong with Morneau’s stats, so why choose Gonzalez over him?
The Reasons
These two are so close in stats, but the first difference lies in perceived value and draft position. First, Morneau’s better supporting cast is noticed by many fantasy managers, so his perceived value is often higher than Gonzalez, causing him to be drafted earlier. Second, Morneau’s MVP title also gives him extra perceived status. Third, Gonzalez has never had a ton of help in San Diego, and with SD’s fire sale this offseason, his perceived value could fall even lower.
Need more reasons? I personally like the fact that Gonzalez has nearly equaled Morneau’s three-year averages despite having a weaker supporting cast and playing half his games in San Diego. Of particular interest is that Gonzalez hit more homers on the road than any MLB player in 2008, with 22. Despite this, he managed to hit 14 at home as well (up from 10 in 2006 and 2007), indicating his power is growing. His power growth is also supported by Ron Shandler’s linear weighted power index (PX), which has been on the rise over the last three years (122, 143, 146). Compare it to Morneau’s, which is on a slight decline (137, 130, 124). Also note the slight upward trend in base performance value (BPV) for Gonzalez (63, 65, 67). Morneau’s has varied from year to year (77, 60, 71). And for those who believe in it, Gonzalez will be the magic age of 27 during the season.
2 comments:
I couldn't agree more. You look at the names though and the first inclination is going to be take Morneau because of the hardware and everything.
Also, Gonzalez might get moved because San Diego needs to move pay roll one way or another to lose $5 million.
It's amazing how things like MVP and Cy Young enter into our minds during drafts, but it immediately adds to value in many managers minds.
I think that's the best thing we can address with this topic is pushing out percieved values based on awards and impressions and addressing the real value with stats and player skills.
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