In part two we covered hitting stats to focus on. Part three is all about the starting pitching. Let’s get started.
Stat Targets for Starters: IP and K
The two biggest categories for starters? Innings and strikeouts. The Halladays and Sabathias—guys who net over 200 IP each year—are immensely valuable because each inning is 2 points. That gives you a base of 400 points before other additions (strikeouts) and subtractions (ER, H, BB) are taken into account. Innings pitched is so important that only two SP with less than 180 IP were able to earn 400 points: Rich Harden and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Dice-K’s total was padded with 18 wins, and Harden made up the difference with 180 K, which leads to the next stat to target.
Every strikeout nets you a point, which essentially “erases” a hit or a walk given up. It’s possible to pitch a lot of innings, not strike out a lot of batters, and still score well, but it’s definitely harder. In fact, no SP who had less than 140 K scored 400 points. Not one. Joe Saunders was the closest, with 103 K and 391 points.
And when you combine the two together (high IP and high K), the stats become more telling. Starters who pitch 200+ innings and get 140+ K made up 87.5% of the 400-point SP last year.
Of all SP with 200+ IP: scored 400+ = 20/28 = 71.4%
Percentage of 400+ SP with 200+ IP = 20/25 = 80%
Percentage of 400+ SP with 190+ IP = 23/25 = 92%
Of all SP with 140+ K: scored 400+ = 25/35 = 71.4%
Percentage of 400+ SP with 140+ K = 25/25 = 100%
Of 24 SP with 200+ IP and 140+ K: scored 400+ = 21/24 = 87.5%
K/9 needs to be over 6.2 to have a chance at 400 points
So what does this translate into? If a starter doesn’t have a K/9 rate of at least 6.2, he did not reach 400 points in 2008. The highest K/9 of a 400-point SP was Rich Harden (11.0), and there was a tie for the lowest between Derek Lowe and Gavin Floyd (6.2). The average K/9 of all 25 of the 400-point SP comes to 8.0.
Coming Up
In part four, we'll be giving you the ultimate guide to points leagues. We'll list the guys who meet our criteria and are undervalued, give sleeper candidates, and list popular players who are busts due to their ADP and low point totals. ETA for this guide is February 1!
