The Detroit Tigers signed Brandon Lyon today as a candidate to close games in 2009. I feel the need to question this signing at an estimated 4.25 million. Is Brandon Lyon any better than Fernando Rodney or Joel Zumaya?I am going to take health out of the question, but I understand Rodney and Zumaya are like counting on Mark Prior to throw 50 innings.
Brandon Lyon
Lyon is a borderline K/BB pitcher, but counts on control as his K/9 is around 6 most seasons. Relievers usually do better with higher strikeout rates if they don't have a K/BB over 2.50. I do have some interest though as he improved both his K/9 and BB/9 in 2008. This gave him a strong K/BB and a FIP of 3.84. This is a big step up from his final ERA of 4.70.
This final ERA cost him his job as closer in Arizona, but wasn't what he truly did in 2008. His bad luck came on a BABIP of .355. The 3.84 FIP he had is probably his ceiling, but he will be at or above 4.00 in 2009.
Fernando Rodney
Rodney has a very similar control history with many years around 2.50 in his K/BB. He has a much better K/9 though. He had a similarly unlucky 2008 with a FIP of 4.12 and a ERA of 4.91. He needs to really drop his BB/9 and could be dominant, but as long as he walks more than 4 runners every 9 innings he won't be successful.
Joel Zumaya
He has yet to actually show the potential in the majors many had hoped for. His 100 mph fastball isn't leading to a great K/9 since his great start in 2003. All the injuries are taking there toll. He had a K/9 at 10.48, but since then it has dropped to the 7-8 range. Even when he has been back he hasn't stayed long so we don't really know what to expect, but I wouldn't expect him at closer anytime this year and without an improved K/BB he has minimal value.
Did the Tigers improve their closer by adding Brandon Lyon? No. The good news for Tigers fans is they improved their bullpen. These guys are not horrible options and should supply solid innings with the possibility of very strong performances. Brandon Lyon looks to be the immediate pickup for saves, but we'll need spring training to make the final choice.
2 comments:
It's funny that you said it because I didn't realize Zumaya really hasn't been that dominant with his strikeouts the last couple of seasons. Last year his K:BB ratio was at 1! I'd like to think that he has the most potential to be dominant, but I guess we can't get our hopes too high. You used Mark Prior's name in this post for a reason.
Yeah he was not good at all last season and the 1 K/BB was horrible. He's going to need an amazing spring to win the job.
I always use Mark Prior as my injury target, I did used to enjoy calling Rich Harden the Mark Prior of the AL, but can't any more. He's now the new Mark Prior of the Cubs.
Post a Comment