Who is the Red Sox #5 Starter

The Red Sox appear to be kicking the tires on quite a few pitchers this offseason including AJ Burnett, John Smoltz, Derek Lowe, Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia just to name the bigger names. I don't think they are to serious about any of them, but a short term deal with maybe John Smoltz wouldn't surprise me.

I want to address the staff as it stand now and who will move into the #5 in April if no one is signed. The Rotation as it stands is Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield. This leaves an opening to start the season and primarily three options from the teams young stock of players to choose from.

First up is Clay Buchholz who came up in 2007 and pitched 22.2 amazing innings including the no-hitter. He was primed for a big season in 2008, but injuries (minor finger problem) and the team playing with his arm angle in the minors appears to have sidetracked him. (articles on this here and here). Looking at his minor league numbers you can see what he is capable of. Before his 2008 season he had K/BB over 4.00 at every stop in the minors including 4.23 at a short stay in AAA in 2007. He also had a K/9 over 12.00 for much of that time including AA and AAA. He has yet to show that in the majors due to his limited innings. I truly believe he is the Red Sox best choice, but that will depend on how much control he can have with the new arm angle if they continue to have him use it.

The next option is Justin Masterson who made 9 starts before moving to the bullpen for the remainder of the year and into the playoffs. Masterson's minor league splits are not as impressive, but still had K/BB's over 2.50 for most of his time, but his K/9 was around 9 and would be expected to drop against major league hitters. His problem was walks which increased in the majors and plagued him to a FIP of 4.69. He does have sink to his pitches and is benefited by a 54.3% GB rate. This should help him continue to benefit from a lower K/BB, but I do suspect that will improve next year.

The new kid is Michael Bowden who did make a September appearance. He pitched a 5 inning game for his first major league win and gave up 2 earned runs. Bowden has been rated the Red Sox #2 prospect (not including Masterson and Buchholz) behind Lars Anderson by Minor League Ball. They said he has "strong command of solid stuff". Looking at his 2008 season I can see what they are referring too. He is not a big strikeout guy, but still blows away our K/BB chart. In AA he threw 104.1 IP and had a K/9-8.71 a BB/9 of 2.07 and a resulting K/BB of 4.21. In 40 IP of AAA he had a K/9-6.53 a BB/9 of 1.13 and a resulting K/BB of 5.80. I do not have his GB% and unsure if he benefits there, but even if he doesn't he models the minor league numbers of Kevin Slowey and if he has the good ground ball rate then a Roy Halladay.

The Red Sox I'm sure will have a healthy competition on there hands this Spring for that spot, but my initial suspicion is Buchholz if returned to form will be the #5 with Masterson back to the pen and Bowden getting another chance to show his stuff at AAA. I would approach them in the draft this way with Masterson being the one who needs to improve the most right now. If any of these pitchers are moved for catching and have an open shot at the rotation I would make a late selection on them and expect a strong year.

Questions or comments send to TroyPatterson@RotoSavants.com

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