Tuesday, December 23

What does Tex to NY mean.

I was pulling for Tex to Boston as both a Red Sox fan and a fantasy baseball player as I think it was the best statistical destination for him. I was reading an article quickly posted at Fangraphs analyzing the results and since Melky Cabrera will be the odd man out with Swisher moving to the OF now they assumed an increase of 3-4 wins and moved their total from 88 wins to 92. If it was just a comparison of Tex to Cabrera though that was not a good debate. Let's go over the 2008 team since actually Swisher is replacing Cabrera and Teixeira is replacing Giambi/Rotating 1B.

Giambi finished with 113 games at 1B so we can access the difference here with Giambi as the 1B in 2008.

Here is your 2008 1B and CF:
Giambi = +22.6 wRAA -2.5 UZR (assuming 150 games) -12.5 position adjustment +20 replacement player = 27.6
Cabrera = -16.3 wRAA +0 UZR +2.5 position adjustment +20 replacement player = -1.2
Runs over replacement = 26.4

Based on a projection for 2009 1B and CF:
Teixeira = +37.4 wRAA +4 UZR -12.5 position adjustment +20 replacement player= 48.9
Swisher = +5.6 wRAA -10 UZR +2.5 position adjustment +20 replacement player = 21.9
Runs over replacement = 70.8

This means the Yankees have added 56.4 runs to their 2009 team which adds 5.6 wins to their projection. Tex seems like a lock to be a 5 win player over a replacement so the Yanks are paying 4.5 million dollars per win in 2009. That is actually a steal, but in the later years of his deal he should become less of a deal and the inability to put Jeter/Posada/Matsui/etc at first base will be a problem.

2 comments:

  1. An interesting comparison would be the projections for this 2009 team versus the 2004 team that traded for A-Rod.

    I'm convinced the lineups aren't really going to differ that much.

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  2. I'll try to run the full lineup compared to 2004. I think a big change will be some of the defense, but let's see how much they changed.

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