OBP value in a 5x5 League

I know many fantasy players who just ignore OBP in many leagues since it is not a stat used for their league, but I am here to tell you why this stat is still one of the most important stats you have.

OBP Factors
What tells you that a player will have a good OBP?

The major factor is BB% as players with a BB% over 10 are walking 1 out of every 10 PA. This usually leads to a good OBP, which I consider .360 as my cutoff for an above average OBP. OBP though is also influenced by the players batting average and BABIP. If a player like Nick Swisher in 2008 has a BB% of 14%, but has a BABIP of .251 he could end up severely hurting in his OBP.

So the two stats you need to find if a player has a true positive OBP value is BB% and also LD% can help raise their xBABIP and also this leads to a higher OBP.

OBP Uses
What use do I have for OBP in a 5x5 League?

There are 3 statistics that are of major influence by OBP. Let's go over them and how to use OBP for them.

Runs - This is the big one as any player with an OBP under .350 is going to have trouble reaching major statistical run totals depending on their team. Of the top 35 players in runs for 2008 only 3 had an OBP under .350 : Ryan Howard, Johnny Peralta and Jacoby Ellsbury. That is 8.5% of the top 35 were able to reach greater than 95 runs.

Howard was helped by his slugging and that 48 of his runs were supplied by home run. Peralta and Ellsbury are more based on lineup and luck to get those totals.

Stolen Bases - I like to judge stolen base potential by finding the number of attempted steals based on how many times the player reached first base. This is more a judge of how often a player will steal. If the player has an OBP under .350 they are getting less of these chances to take second base.

Matt Kemp had 35 steals last year, but his OBP was only .340. If he upped his BB% from 7% to 10% his OBP is now .368 and he has 20 extra chances starting from first. Using his 2008 attempted steal rate of 38% he would have attempted 52 steals with a .368 OBP and with a 77% success rate that gives him 40 steals.

You can also use OBP to caution your expectations for players steals. Ian Kinsler stole 26 bases in 121 games, but before you give him 30 next year he had a BABIP of .339. When you bring this back to career levels he loses at least .020 off his OBP. That has him lose several opportunities and keeps him under 30 steals in 2009

Average - How can average be affected by OBP you ask? This has more to do with a players BB%, but you can still better see a players true talent at the plate in there OBP. If you again rank the the best OBP players you'll see that 3 of the players with OBP's over .375 have an average under .280: Dunn, Pena, Cust.

These are you're typical 3 outcome players (walk, strikeout, home run) and are well known for this type of approach. On the other hand the other 31 players with an OBP over .375 are going to be the most consistent players for average as they truly have a great eye at the plate.

Closing Thoughts

I prefer having OBP as a category in my leagues, but even if it isn't you need to always take this statistic into account when evaluation talent. Juan Pierre would be a 120+ potential if he could just get his OBP to .380.

Questions or comments send to TroyPatterson@RotoSavants.com