I am a strong supporter of waiting on outfielders. The only ones worth drafting early are those who help in all five categories. Otherwise you can wait until after round 5-6 to start stocking your OF. My first pick in the Mock Draft was in Round 7 with Magglio Ordonez.
2009 Outfielder Rankings in 5x5 leagues
1. Ryan Braun - I would have left Holliday number 1 here if he was in Colorado. Braun though is going to hit 40 homers this year in a very good lineup. He supplies in every category and you have your top OF.
2. Grady Sizemore - His only limit is his RBI, but his 30/30 skills make him one of your best power speed choices.
3. Matt Holliday - Holliday became a real speedster in 2008 and it cost him a few homers. He should still approach 30 homers in Oakland, but step back a bit in SB.
4. Josh Hamilton - We again have a guy who can steal dougle digits at 10 steals, but also threaten for 40 homers. A warning for those counting on his high RBI output though should be cautioned. His roster has some good OBP, but Bradley is out so his chances may drop slightly.
5. Carlos Beltran - He was threatening for 30/30 this past season and was one of the best players in five categories. Forget the 40 homer guy from a few years ago, but still top five with his power/speed.
6. Alfonso Soriano - The legs seem to be slowing him down. You gotta asume the ceiling is about 30/20 now, but still a top guy in the OF.
7. Carlos Quentin - One of the best values in 2008. He was headed to 40 homers, but that may have been over his head. I still consider him a 35 homer guy, but caution his value with possible power loss due to the wrist injury.
8. Manny Ramirez - Will he be motivated if he gets a 4 year deal? I don't know, but the .373 BABIP is not maintainable. His value could change depending on the team that signs him, but he should get 35 homers and good totals in all but steals.
9. BJ Upton - How relieved was everyone after the playoffs when Upton finally got his power back. The 40 steals is nice, but 9 homers won't cut it this early. I would be expecting 15-20 homers and approaching 40 steals.
10. Jason Bay - Time to see what Bay can do in a real lineup. I could see him in the top 10 with a full season in Boston. Might get overvalued in drafts, but I love him this year.
11. Alex Rios - Another disappointing power output, but he has 20 homer power. He did supply with 32 steals.
12. Nick Markakis - I don't think the power will grow much and he should be a 20-25 guy. The drop in steals are the worry here.
13. Carlos Lee - This area is a lot of guys who used to be top 10 and seem to be slipping. Lee lost quite a lot in runs this past season. Still getting 30 homers with a good average though.
14. Vladimir Guerrero - He's going to hit his 400th this year and could get him some motivation, but the knees are starting to slow him. I don't think he is done yet and should have another 30 homers in him this year.
15. Matt Kemp - He could really shoot up this ranking with a bit more power growth, but a 20/30 season with a .300 average is great value.
16. Curtis Granderson - His value became inflated after 2007, but he could not repeat the 26 steals. His past seems to show him as more of a 20/10 guy.
17. Carl Crawford - Crawford was not the same in 2008 and he if he loses his speed he holds little to no value in fantasy leagues.
18. Nate McLouth - I see a lot of doubters out there when it comes to McLouth and I think that is good news for those who like him. He's a 20/20, but has a 25/25 growth ability.
19. Magglio Ordonez - His run total dropped in 2008, but it should recover as he still got on base at his normal rate. He is no longer the 30+ homer guy, but his average is still worth the difference.
20. Adam Dunn - In an OBP league these three outcome guys are great since they can still take a walk with their strikeouts, but unfortunately his value is much lower in AVG leagues. He is the most consistent hitter in baseball and you can count on 40+ homers from him.
21. Jay Bruce - Don't worry about the average from 2008. His BABIP may have been .298, but he has had a BABIP over .400 at every level in the minors. I don't think he can maintain that, but his BABIP should gain 20-30 points and so should his average. Oh yeah he'll hit 30-35 homers this year, so go get him.
22. Shane Victorino - Good all around player, but not going to break 15 homers or 60 RBI's. 35 Steals is a good total though.
23. Jacoby Ellsbury - I am not a fan of Ellsbury's current progression. He doesn't get on base enough and has a stat line similar to Juan Pierre minus 8 homers. Ellsbury - .293/.346/.413 Pierre - .300/.346/.371 I only rank him higher than Pierre cause he is still developing, on a better offense and the extra 8 homers.
24. Ichiro Suzuki - Our first three category only guy and a decline is predicted by PECOTA to happen this year. Might not want to invest to highly, but still possible to steal 35-40 bases if he can ward off age another year.
25. Bobby Abreu - Bobby had a bit of a comback in 2008 getting 20 homers and totaling a 20/100/100/20 season, but the speed and power have been in decline for years and I wouldn't count on those totals in 2009.
26. Ryan Ludwick - He is a true 30 homer hitter and in a lineup with good protection and RBI chances, but he is not a .300 hitter. His BABIP of .349 calls for a regression and his career AVG mark is .273.
27. Hunter Pence -Time to keep Pence away from glass sliding doors and he should have his first 30 homer season. Combine that with double digit steals and a .290 average and you have a bit of risk, but a great pick.
28. Vernon Wells - He's just not the same anymore and will never reach those 2006 numbers again. He is a health risk, but should be good for a 20/10 season.
29. Torii Hunter - Another guy who supplies power and speed, but his average is a drag. He also lacks in runs and RBI's. His draft spot usually reflects his value though.
30. Corey Hart - I'm going against Lenny Melnick on this one, because I like McLouth better than Corey Hart. I think they are both good for 20/20, but Hart had a 4.2% walk rate in 2008 and you can't break 100 runs no matter who is on your team with that walk rate.
31. Johnny Damon - The power is going, which could start to hurt his average. He could still get 25 steals, but playing time is going to start disappearing as he continues to age from injuries and days off on a team with an excess of OF's.
32. Brad Hawpe - Could gain some value as lineups get shuffled with Holliday gone. If he can add some RBI's he would be a great pick. He's going to push for 30 homers this year.
33. Jermaine Dye - He is going to hit 30 homers, but expect a drop in average back to .270.
34. Xavier Nady - He gains value in NY with RBI chances, but he has to question his playing time right now. He won't hit over .300 this year though.
35. Raul Ibanez - He is not going to hit 30 anymore, but he is a good RBI guy and in a good lineup he would be a good bet for 110 RBI's again. If he heads to Philly he could get above 25 homers.
36. Pat Burrell - Here is your Adam Dunn lite a few rounds later. He is good for 30-35, but the average still hurts.
37. Willy Tavaras - He is your ultimate one category guy. He will have 60 steals, but with a poor OBP he can only get 64 runs last year. He also tops out at an AVG of .280. Another player that is better in fantasy then real life.
38. Conor Jackson - Here is you AVG only guy. 15 homers from your OF isn't very good without more speed. He did go 15/10 in 2008, but that is probably his ceiling.
39. Rick Ankiel - I'm not sold on his health, but he has 40 homer talent. His risk and limitation in all other categories make him fall this far.
40. Chris Young - How misplayed has Young's career been. He is not a leadoff hitter and now he stops stealing? With all the average and steals questions I wouldn't target him, but he has 25/25 skills.
41. Carlos Gomez - He was walking in AAA, but suddenly he isn't in the majors. The ability was there and a raised OBP would really help his value in runs and steals. He is a Jacoby Ellsbury with a worse AVG/OBP at this point though.
42. Andre Ethier - Some people will look at the second half power and look for more this year, but I think you always have to look at the whole picture. He hasn't shown more than 20 homer power yet. Good AVG, but little speed.
43. Mark DeRosa - Not his best position for sure, but again 17-20 homers with little speed and an OK average. Probably gone as someones 2B/MI/CI before you get him as a OF.
44. Milton Bradley - The board game is going to make some money this year as a free agent, but he really can't be trusted. His average was inflated by a .396 BABIP and he has yet to play 130 games in 5 seasons.
45. Jayson Werth - His numbers against righties really improved this past season, but that can't be assured. His power and speed though should stay at 20/20. I expect a drop in average if playing as a starter full time.
46. Eric Byrnes - He should return to 20 homers, but the speed might be a question and 50 steals is out of the question. His average is a big minus as well. I would avoid him this year.
47. Juan Pierre - My favorite Ellsbury comparison loses value for his lineup, his complete lack of power and his questionable playing time. He still gets 40+ steals and is a true .300 hitter.
48. J.D. Drew - Still can't stay healthy, but got 19 homers in only 109 games. I would like to see him bat top 3 in the lineup in Boston with his OBP and he would be a great play for HR, Run and AVG.
49. Hideki Matsui - It was great when you could just assume Matsui would get 25/100/100/.300. Now you have to assume he will miss games and get days off to rest.
50. Nelson Cruz - Should he be drafted in this range? Probably not, but this is when you should start to entertain the idea. This guy is going to have a good AVG, push 30 homers and steal 15-20 bases. He'll fall as people still label him a AAAA player, but this is his year.
51. Delmon Young - What happened to the 20/20 guy that we saw coming. I can't say he won't grow, but I don't see anything better than 15/15 this year.
52. Fred Lewis - Lewis can actually get on base so runs and steals should be good. He will total 20-25 steals with 80+ runs and a good average.
53. Lastings Milledge - He has a worse average and less runs than Lewis with only a few more homers. He probably doesn't have much more than 15 homers.
54. Denard Span - I got flack for agreeing with an "Are You Crazy?" segment that Span has a shot to equal Reyes as an OF. I don't think it's a real good shot, but it's possible. Last year was his first real signs of any power, but 10 would seem to be a ceiling. He should get 30 stolen bases as he has a great OBP to get plenty of oppurtunities.
55. Nick Swisher - His final line excluding average wasn't horrible although many hoped for a return to 30 homers. He appears to be a Pat Burrell lite.
56. Shin-Soo Choo - The lack of steals are a concern, but really has grown in power. He was coming back from Tommy John surgery so more growth this year would not surprise.
57. Mike Cameron - You're last shot at a sure 20/20, but the average is to low to be higher than this. Last year was quite impressive since he did miss 25 games for suspension.
58. Cameron Maybin - His strikeout problem is not going to be easily fixed. He had a 31.8% K rate in AAA this past season. He has speed and some skills to makeup for that with an elevated BABIP, but he will never be a .300 hitter in the majors. With a full season though he could go 15/30 as a rookie. He is a ROY candidate for sure.
59. Jason Kubel - He had a nice season in 2008 and a repeat with some power improvment is my guess for 2009. Could shoot for 25 homers this year, but 20 would be a baseline.
60. Ty Wiggington - Probably gone by now as someone's CI position, but he is a one trick player. You get 20-25 homers and everything else is below average.
61. Josh Willingham - Similar to Wigginton with more injury concerns and some ability to get more runs and RBI's.
62. Randy Winn - Winn is often forgot, but with limited power he shouldn't go much higher than this. He once went 20/19, but he probably more of a 10/20 guy now.
63. Michael Cuddyer - I think the 24 homer season of 2006 is out of the question and with limited time 15 maybe his new ceiling.
64. Jeff Franceour - His average was struck by a low BABIP, but he should be more of a .272 hitter than his previous years at .300 and .293. The concern is the complete loss of power. 11 homers is not enough for an OF with no steals. He might get 20 again, but don't assume it.
65. Coco Crisp - The power the Sox traded for never materialezed and now he seems to be a speedster only. 20 steals though and a .280 average at best are not strong qualities.
66. Jose Guillen - I have the current Royals OF 65-67 so that tells you a lot about their team. Guillen should get you 20 homers, but his other numbers are limited by the lineup.
67. David DeJesus - Good Average, but limited to 10/10 in power and steals make him a last choice OF.
68. Jack Cust - Going to hit 30 homers, but will be a drain at all other categories. His consistensy at power is good.
69. Brian Giles - I still like Giles and he is a good player, but 12-15 homers is his max and he can score runs, but they bat him high in the order and limit his RBI's. Can hold a .300 AVG.
70. Garret Anderson - Almost a match to Giles, but batting lower he is better in RBI's and weaker in Runs. Should have 15 homers as well.
71. Aaron Rowand - His power took a drop when moving to the big parks of the NL West. Look for continued limited value as he no longer can reach 20 homers.
72. Kosuke Fukudome - He has almost been given up on already, but he still holds some value. He was never considered much of a power threat here in the US, but the OBP possibilities should have lead to more runs if put in a better spot in the order. Even with a small uptick in AVG though he is little better than a #5 or bench at this point.
73. Jeremy Hermida - Has 20 homer power, but 142 was a new career high for him in games played and he supply's little else and a poor average.
74. Elijah Dukes - Dukes had 13/13 in homers and steals in only 284 AB's in 2008. With playing time and meeting his potential he should go 20/20, but with a poor average.
75. Adam Lind - He's finally going to get a shot and 20 homers is a sure thing, but I think he will hit .300 as well as he has always had a good BABIP.
2009 Catcher Rankings
2009 First Base Rankings
2009 Second Base Rankings
2009 Shortstop Rankings
2009 Third Base Rankings
2009 Outfielder Rankings
2009 DH Rankings
2009 Starting Pitcher Rankings
2009 Closer Rankings
2009 Draft Cheat Sheet 1-100
2009 Draft Sleepers
2009 Draft Busts