2009 Closer Rankings in 5x5 leagues
1. Jonathon Papelbon - Rodriguez may have set the saves record, but Papelbon was the better pitcher. He had a K/BB of 9.63 and had a FIP of 2.01 so was unlucky to have a 2.34 ERA.
2. Francisco Rodriguez - I didn't know if his decline in ratios would continue next year, but after reading Brian Joura's article I would look for better rates next year.
3. Mariano Rivera - As good as Papelbon's K/BB was Mo had an amazing K/BB of 12.83. In the end he had more luck and had a FIP of 2.03. I rank him third for age and possible decline.
4. Joe Nathan - If anything Nathan has been very consistent at around a 2.00 ERA and close to 40 saves. Solid to get those numbers again in 2009.
5. Brad Lidge - He won't be perfect again, but should still be around 40 saves. His K/BB is not the strongest, but with a K/9 at 12 every year he can maintain a high LOB% and beat his FIP. He could do even better by lowering his BB/9, but he's proven himself in Philly.
6. Bobby Jenks - He's not a prototypical closer as his K/BB is below average at 2.24. He makes up for it with a GB% that neared 60% in 2008. This can cause a few blown saves every now and then, but he is still one of the top closers.
7. Kerry Wood - Could be top 3 with his great K/BB of 4.67 and good strikeouts every year. Wood's problem will always be his health and he has yet to prove this to the contrary.
8. Jose Valverde - His ERA was a bit higher than normal due to a high HR/FB. He should return to an ERA around 3. Valverde has also had a K/BB over 3 almost every season. One of the more solid options.
9. Francisco Cordero - Cordero had way to many walks in 2008, but this was not the norm for him. He also dropped from 12 K/9 to 9.98. I think he can adjust this year, but it is a risk.
10. Joakim Soria - One of the best value picks in 2008. His stats don't really match with his final line though. He is not going to get an ERA of 1.60 as he had a BABIP of .215 and a LOB% of 89.5%. His FIP was 3.25 so expect stats more in line with that figure.
11. Matt Capps - Another pitcher whose team is limiting his potential, however losing teams have normally proved as many, if not more saves chances than top tier teams. He had the third best K/BB among closers at 7.80 and should have his first 30 save season in 2009. He is more of a control pitcher and strikeouts will be lower. Remember when Jose Mesa topped 40 saves for the Pirates?
12. Jonathon Broxton - No more Saito, so Broxton is running unopposed in 2009. He had a lot of lucky and unlucky stats, but once it all evens out I expect his ERA not to change to much either way.
13. Brian Fuentes - Fuentes should have never been removed from the closers job at any time and is a very good pitcher. Most managers would prefer him elsewhere since he is a lefty, but his numbers back this up. If he signs as a setup man he falls of the board.
14. Mike Gonzalez - Mike was a bit shaky when he came back, but a lot had to do with a HR/FB that was way to high at 16.7%. When that drops down to normal league averages he will be a top closer. Gonzales is still a risky selection with his injury history.
15. BJ Ryan - He beat his FIP of 3.68 and had a below exceptional K/BB of 2.07. He did have great numbers before the injury and could still improve. Unless his K/9 can surpass 10, he has too many walks to be trusted like it's 2007 again.
16. Huston Street - Even in a down/injured year he still had great underlying numbers. Even if he stays in Denver I expect a great season with plenty of saves, but still an injury risk.
17. Brad Ziegler/Joey Devine - I hate to do this, but I can't split them since they both are such strong candidates in a great home stadium. Ziegler is your below average K/BB guy with an amazing GB% of 64.7%. Devine on the other hand was a lucky pitcher at 0.59 ERA, but his FIP was 1.97. Once one is named the other is still a good candidate for ratio improvement, and making sure you have the handcuff.
18. matt Lindstrom - Sure he only had 5 saves last year, but he showed he could handle the job. I like Lindstrom as a candidate to save 25-30 games and be a great choice as your 2nd or 3rd closer.
19. Trevor Hoffman - His unlucky 2008 will help someone sneak a great closer late. He still had one of the best K/BB of 2008 with a mark of 5.11. I don't see this being the end just yet.
20. Brian Wilson - Wilson still has some control problems and needs to work on cutting down on the walks. It's possible he has a short leash with Jeremy Affeldt in town.
21. Chad Qualls - It's possible they go back to Tony Pena, but Qualls is the choice right now. He has had several short stays as closer, but this could be the last chance or be labeled a player unable of closing.
22. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg - I would say Carlos Marmol is the best choice for Chicago, but trading for Gregg raises questions. Gregg has been very up and down in his stats, and Marmol has improved since being turned into a reliever.
23. Heath Bell/Cla Meredith - Cla was not as good as 2006 showed. The team hopefully will realize that Bell is made to be a closer with great stuff. Hopefully his 3.58 ERA this year won't discourage the Padres.
24. George Sherill/Chris Ray - Sherrill got the saves last year, but his stats showed his struggles weren't just bad luck. He cannot be successful with a 5.57 BB/9. Ray has not had a chance to prove his health yet so keep expectations in check.
25. Frank Francisco/CJ Wilson - Francisco was very god last year and had a good run once Wilson was removed from the role. Wilson stats show he is only a lefty specialist and if he gets the job move him ASAP.
26. Joel Hanrahan - He's got work to do to get better, but he has not shown good control numbers in the minors. I don't know how long he will last in this job.
27. Brandon Lyon/Fernando Rodney/Joel Zumaya - I don't like this competition at all and suggest avoiding any until a choice is made. If it's Zumaya his health is always a concern as well as Rodney. I wouldn't drop any other closer for one of these guys, but if you have an empty closer spot then get the one with the job.
The Rest of those looking at a job
Chris Perez
Brandon Morrow
David Riske
Troy Percival
Best Without a Job - Good for ratios
Jeremy Affeldt
Taylor Buchholz
Jon Rauch
Manny Corpas
Chad Cordero
19. Trevor Hoffman - His unlucky 2008 will help someone sneak a great closer late. He still had one of the best K/BB of 2008 with a mark of 5.11. I don't see this being the end just yet.
20. Brian Wilson - Wilson still has some control problems and needs to work on cutting down on the walks. It's possible he has a short leash with Jeremy Affeldt in town.
21. Chad Qualls - It's possible they go back to Tony Pena, but Qualls is the choice right now. He has had several short stays as closer, but this could be the last chance or be labeled a player unable of closing.
22. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg - I would say Carlos Marmol is the best choice for Chicago, but trading for Gregg raises questions. Gregg has been very up and down in his stats, and Marmol has improved since being turned into a reliever.
23. Heath Bell/Cla Meredith - Cla was not as good as 2006 showed. The team hopefully will realize that Bell is made to be a closer with great stuff. Hopefully his 3.58 ERA this year won't discourage the Padres.
24. George Sherill/Chris Ray - Sherrill got the saves last year, but his stats showed his struggles weren't just bad luck. He cannot be successful with a 5.57 BB/9. Ray has not had a chance to prove his health yet so keep expectations in check.
25. Frank Francisco/CJ Wilson - Francisco was very god last year and had a good run once Wilson was removed from the role. Wilson stats show he is only a lefty specialist and if he gets the job move him ASAP.
26. Joel Hanrahan - He's got work to do to get better, but he has not shown good control numbers in the minors. I don't know how long he will last in this job.
27. Brandon Lyon/Fernando Rodney/Joel Zumaya - I don't like this competition at all and suggest avoiding any until a choice is made. If it's Zumaya his health is always a concern as well as Rodney. I wouldn't drop any other closer for one of these guys, but if you have an empty closer spot then get the one with the job.
The Rest of those looking at a job
Chris Perez
Brandon Morrow
David Riske
Troy Percival
Best Without a Job - Good for ratios
Jeremy Affeldt
Taylor Buchholz
Jon Rauch
Manny Corpas
Chad Cordero
2 comments:
Unfortunately, I think the biggest challenge concerning closers depends on your league.
If you're in a league where 10 closers are gone by the end of the 5th-7th rounds, waiting too long may end up hurting you a little too much. Although saves can easily be found during the year, it is never healthy to punt a category.
I find that I usually select my first closer after half of the teams would have selected one. This means in a 12 team league, once the 6th closer is gone (some dummy always takes 2 early), I start focusing on making a selection soon. I think the key is to maximize closers with "safe" jobs and late rounds. For me, that means making sure I leave the draft with two non-elite closers I drafted undervalue, but whom have safe jobs. Last year, the ideal would be if you drafted guys like Soria, Capps, Jenks (undervalued if he slips), Street, Todd Jones, etc.
Skip the big names. They aren't worth the cost.
If your league picks those 10 closers and you get the best available players you still win. You may struggle in saves, but I don't condone punting it.
When the 8th and 9th inning rolls around you have your mid level closers available and mid season pickups. If you can total 70-80 saves you have enough saves in a yahoo league to be competitive.
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