Yovani Gallardo was one of my huge pics for 2008 even with the early knee scope he still looked to be a great pick in later rounds. He then tore his ACL and lost all value for 2008. He returned for the playoffs and showed his health although his defense really let him down.
What should we expect from a healthy Gallardo in 2009? The first test will be continued confidence in his knee when pushing off the rubber. He is around 90-91 mph so he can't lose any speed on his pitches.
Let's look at what he has done in the majors so far. His K/9 has been averaging 8.11 in the majors and is very strong. His BB/9 is around 3.00 and must stay at that level to continue success. This gives him a 2.69 K/BB and makes him a very valuable pitcher.
Some early predictions from Bill James and Marcel call for a K/BB of 2.64 and 2.50, respectively. These would both result in a FIP in the low 3's with normalized ratio's.
This gives us a good idea of his ceiling as I don't expect him to really outperform Bill James projection for K/BB this year coming back from this injury. He may have a few seasons where his BB/9 drop and he really excels.
As for 2009 I expect him to pitch around 180-190 innings and win between 13-15 games. He should have an ERA around 3.50. This puts him in the top 25 starters with the chance to strikeout nearly 200 batters.
In CBS 2009 early Mock draft he went in the 9th round which is right around where I would expect to get him. If your confident the knee is fine you could go late in the 8th to make sure you get him. Otherwise you can see if he slides to round 10, but don't expect him to last much longer than that.
0 comments:
Post a Comment