2009 First Baseman Rankings

First base is all about power. If you can't get enough power here then you must get a great average.

2009 First Baseman Rankings in 5x5 leagues

1. Albert Pujols - A 16% walk rate and only a 10% strikeout rate is the best K/BB in the league. You have a four category monster, but the elbow is still a concern.

2. Miguel Cabrera - That slow start last year really put a damper on his 2008, but he still finished with a great line. His BABIP was below his career level and with an increase he could be at .300 again.

3. Ryan Howard - I wrote an article last year on how much of a steal Howard could be in leagues that let him fall late in the second. I projected his average to return to .285 and be a strong second round pick.

4. Mark Texiera - His numbers are elite, but he doesn't hold any of the categories above the top 3. You could argue he belongs behind Berkman as well, but the move to NY offers good RBI chances.

5. Lance Berkman - We all knew the first half was due for a regression and we saw it, but he had 18 steals which made him still one of the top CI. He might not get 18 steals again, but he should get double digits without injury.

6. Justin Morneau - He has always had a great contract rate and is walking more each year, but the drop in power was disappointing. I don't think it will continue and his HR/FB seems to be an outlier. Expect a return to 30+ homers.

7. Adrian Gonzalez - How many would Adrian hit if he played in a different Ballpark? 36 in 81 games at Petco is quite an accomplishment. I rate him here though because he still plays in SD and I expect a regression to 30 homers, but still a great choice.

8. Prince Fielder - I hope no one drafted Prince expecting 50 homers. That was an amazing 2007, but a better expectation would be 35-40 homers each year when healthy. Average is not a huge problem, but not going to be at .300 consistently.

9. Kevin Youkilis - I had an article to caution expectations for Youk next year yesterday. He will lose a few homers, but his other stats will be strong and he is now a top ten first basemen.

10. Derrek Lee - How we long for 2005 again and 46 homers for Lee. His 8-10 steals though help with the drop to a 20-25 homer season next year.

11. Carlos Pena - The 30 homers of 2008 is more of what we can expect than the 46 in 2007. The problem is that the .247 average is more of the average we can expect.

12. Aubrey Huff - Finally the 30 homer power returned, but I'm not positive he will repeat. He should top 20 again, but he may get overvalued.

13. Carlos Delgado - The dead have risen and Delgado turned a lot of heads last year. He didn't slow down at all and I don't predict it based on what I see. Look for 30-35 homers this year, but there is obvious risk.

14. Joey Votto - Another year and a starting job should add up to his first 30 homer season. Bill James is even calling for 13 steals and would be a huge value.

15. Chris Davis - Yes I did predict 40 homer seasons in his future and he should get there this year. He should maintain his average and be a leader in HR and RBI for years to come.

16. Jorge Cantu - If only he had Second Base eligibility he would a first or second round pick. He carries some risk as he has dropped off before, but 25 homers should be a good target.

17. Conor Jackson - He is a great contact guy, but doesn't have power. He does get a consistent line in all 5 categories though.

18. James Loney - I would like Loney better if his team was built to get on base, but without that he is just going to be good for average. The lack of power is disappointing, but could get a few more, but don't expect 20 or more.

19. Nick Swisher - He couldn't get 30 homers in Chicago and I don't think it will happen in NY. With a low average (although not as low as .219) he should be a last resort or CI.

20. Todd Helton - Time to long for the good old days. He will be average in everything except steals. I expect 17 homers similar to 2007.

21. Mike Jacobs - Another average killer, but he will get you 25-30 homers with low RBI's on that Royals team.

22. Pablo Sandoval - If you have been here before you know I love Sandoval. He is obviously much more valuable at catcher once he is eligible, but I expect a 17/90/90/0/.300 line this year which would beat several of the guys in front of him.

23. Jason Giambi - Is he heading back to Oakland or maybe up to Canada? Either way I would expect another 30 homers and a poor average.

24. Paul Konerko - Will he get back to 30 homers and was 2008 an injury? I think so, but he is still a huge risk. He would make a good CI or UTIL in leagues that need those.

25. Adam LaRoche - LaRoche is a perennial first half killer, but supplies value of a player in the top 15-20 once the second half rolls around. I can't say if this will ever change, but his overall season would make a good CI and if he ever played a full season like his second half you could have the 30 homer player of 2006.


2009 Catcher Rankings
2009 First Base Rankings
2009 Second Base Rankings
2009 Shortstop Rankings
2009 Third Base Rankings
2009 Outfielder Rankings
2009 DH Rankings
2009 Starting Pitcher Rankings
2009 Closer Rankings
2009 Draft Cheat Sheet 1-100
2009 Draft Sleepers
2009 Draft Busts