Every year there is a new batch of theories from every magazine/website you read. All about how best to draft your team this year. Every theory has it’s reasoning and many are good. I am going to add to that with some theories and my reasoning for these.
1. Start your draft with 4-5 category players and let average go first.
Players who can help in all categories usually lead teams that win. Being a five-category player though is based more on position than the whole league. Taking Hanley in round 1 is still five categories although he is lower in RBI. Compared to the SS group he is a leader there.
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Many players will balance a team with a player like Howard with an Ellsbury type, but this leaves your team weak in injury situations. If you can get 2-3 players in the first 3 rounds that are positive skill at all 5 categories you have a better balance of skill for avoiding injuries that destroy your team.
This theory can be changed on the fly. If a player slides and his value is too much to pass then you can make exceptions. Batting Average is probably the category I would make the biggest exception for as well. Average can be made up in the middle and late rounds.
This model leads into our next theory.
2. Do not pick pitchers (starters or closers) before the best 4-5 category guys are of the board. Round 5 or 6 is a good time to start looking.
This rule is a follow up to the first because no pitcher can help in 5 categories and immediately have less value. The best starter can only help in 4 categories and closers are truly only single category players.
This also has to do with injury avoidance and limitations on value as many pitchers are drafted to early.
To be more specific with Closers I suggest waiting until the top tier is gone. Even the best closers with good K, ERA and WHIP as well as Saves are not strong enough to carry you in anything other than saves. In rounds 4-5 you need to get players who can make a huge difference not one category. Don’t be afraid to pick closers like Soria on poor teams as they can still get 40 saves and be a positive value.
3. In later rounds again start to think of 4-5-category talent
When you reach the late rounds its time to start looking at all around prospects. You don’t want to pickup single talent players. Willy Tavaras may steal 68 bases, but he destroys you in every other category.
Look for next year’s Nate McLouth by picking players with a strong Aug/Sept such as Shin-Soo Choo. These are your best chances at players who can be used for trade bait as well as a bench player who can fill in more than adequately.
Never over value steals as your team should now have a balanced roster of speed and any late season needs in steals can be made with September callups who have good steal numbers. This year players like Brett Gardner and Josh Anderson would fill this need.
4. Simplify your player choices with these Statistics
When debating players of similar value use the following numbers to make your choice. Hitters should be judged by K% or Contact Rate and HR/FB rate. These numbers give you a strong case for batting averages and homer power.
When reviewing pitchers I use two stats. K/9 and K/BB to make a final judgment. This and GB% are really all we can see that a pitcher will control. If you are debating 2 pitchers in your middle rounds go with the stronger K/9 and K/BB pitcher in almost all cases.
Conclusions
Your draft should be broken down into three parts. The first rounds from 1-5 should be filling your lineup with players who fill 4-5 stat categories with average being the first category you let go.
In the middle or rounds 6-16 you need to fill out your roster. Get a good roster that fills most of your positions. Some leagues this maybe a starting lineup or at least almost complete.
This leaves you with rounds 17 on to look for young talent and injury risks to fill the bench/remaining spots. Look for the players getting full time at bats for the first time (Choo and Nelson Cruz).
