Who will be the next Pitcher to get 300 Strikeouts?

300 strikeouts has been accomplished 63 times in all of baseball history. Only 2 pitchers have done it since 2000 with Randy Johnson doing it 3 times and Curt Schilling once. In the 90’s it had been done 7 times with the same two pitchers and Pedro Martinez also breaking 300.

The lowest K/9 ratio of the three was Curt Schilling in 2002 with a 10.97 in 259.1 IP for a total of 316 strikeouts. We will use this as a baseline K/9 and IP, but if someone could reach RJ type K/9 of 12-13 then it would take only 225+ IP.

2008 Innings Leaders
This season only 2 pitchers are on a pace to come close to those type’s of innings. Roy Halladay who will never cross 10 in K/9 and CC Sabathia who is also only a career 7.53 K/9. Neither of these pitchers have the strikeout rate to get to 300.

Injury Risks
The next question is what pitcher might have the K/9 if healthy and able to pitch 250+ innings. Rich Harden had a K/9 of 11.22 in 142 innings. Tim Lincecum would also be a possibility with a K/9 of 10.14 in 215 innings. Lincecum has yet to face an injury, but the recless nature which the Giants are using on his develoopment does not sit still with me. If they were contending I could make some acceptance of the risks, but this seems foolish. I do truely believe that Lincecum is the best bet as his stuff improves.

Another is Joba Chamberlain, but injuries seem to have already made an effect. If the wear this year was based largely on his quick move to the rotation perhaps starting next year fresh can get him back on track. So far in 122 IP in the majors he has a K/9 of 10.93. Although many of those innings were as a reliever.

Young Talent
A young player with a possibility is Max Scherzer. In 51 innings this year he has had a K/9 of 10.94. He is still young and with some more growth he could have some years with strikeout rates over 11 per 9 innings. He has been mentioned as staying in the pen next year which would remove him from the choices.

The truth is I don’t believe we will see another 300 K inning for awhile, if at all. Pitchers don’t pass the 250 IP mark as frequently and that would be needed. The cost for pitching has become so high to limit the ability to risk an injury by going more then 7 innings at best per start and having 30 or so starts. Lincecum needs to prove next year that he has no ill effects from the abuse he has taken in innings and number of pitches this year. If he can prove to be a true workhorse and up his 220+ innings from this year to 250 next year he might have a chance.