Kenji Johjima Breakdown

What happened to Kenji this year. He entered 2008 with a great K% and he should have continued to press .300 in average. He had yet to get to .300, but likely due to his propensity to hit grounders (1.32 career GB/FB). He had a 3.4% BB% and a 8.8% K%. That and a HR/FB of 10% should have had him with 15+ homers and around a .300 average. He currently stands at 5 homers and a line of .209/.255/.307.

What went wrong this year?

1) Drop in HR/FB to 5.2%. This is a stat that could show many things. He could have been having problems with injury, he has a metal plate in his hand from an injury in Japan, or he could have diminishing power. This drop though only explains his lower homers and not his 80 point drop in average.

2) BABIP takes an extreme toll on Johjima. He hits ~20% of his hits for line drives and was on that pace this year. His BABIP in 2006 and 2007 was lower than his xBABIP of .320 at .291 and .292 respectively. These lower BABIP's are probably due to that higher GB%. This year though with a similar LD% he has dropped to .216 for BABIP in 326 AB's. That is one of the larger differences from xBABIP to BABIP I have seen in that many AB's.

3) IFFB% up 3.3%. IFFB% (In Field Fly Ball %) is a stat I don't always use here at Roto Savants, but with only 5 homers this season using HitTracker to gauge his power is not going to help. He know has 46.8% GB and ~5% of his fly balls in the infield. This is not going to lead to a lot of hits.

4) Ave Speed off of bat for homers has dropped each year. I did get this from HitTracker that all of his stats have decreased from 2006 to today. His True homer distance, Average Standard Distance and speed of ball off of the bat have decreased and this year have dropped significantly.

Conclusion

Johjima is definitely experiencing some bad luck as there is no way he should have a BABIP of .216. He has also lost AB's which will slow his BABIP return to the mean. This could cause him to get very undervalued and some team could take a shot on him if Seattle has given up on him. The concern I have is that he is possibly lost bat speed and power due to his hand injury returning (or some other problem) and will not regain his power. Even still he has a 8.5% K rate this year, which should be good for a .280 average if his BABIP returns to normal.

If Johjima can hold his starting job or moves to another he maybe a good steal later in 2009 drafts. Look for him as a backup catcher to make a rebound.