I think it is a good idea to start to list players in groups by what category makes them a risk for being overvalued next year. I think most have a general understanding of what make these categories risky.
Hitters
BABIP above .340 :
Milton Bradley, Matt Kemp, Chipper Jones, Matt Holliday, Fred Lewis, Lance Berkman, Xavier Nady, Manny Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Johnny Damon, Brian Roberts, Brad Hawpe, Adam Jones, Randy Winn, Ryan Ludwick, Orlando Hudson, Joe Mauer, Ryan Theriot, B.J. Upton, Aaron Rowand, Albert Pujols, Curtis Granderson, Nick Markakis.
LD% above 23%:
Joey Votto, Ryan Ludwick, Xavier Nady, Chone Figgins, Andre Ethier, Chipper Jones, Gregor Blanco, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, David DeJesus, Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Milton Bradley, Miguel Tejada, Jeff Kent, Kelly Johnson, Casey Blake, Bobby Abreu, Freddy Sanchez, Brad Hawpe, Ryan Theriot.
Pitchers
BABIP below .270:
Justin Duchscherer, Tim Wakefield, Armando Galarraga, Shaun Marcum, David Bush, Joe Saunders, Gavin Floyd, Gregory Smith, Jeremy Guthrie, Cole Hamels, Tim Hudson.
HR/FB% below 8%:
Cliff Lee, Matt Cain, Mike Pelfrey, Tim Lincecum, Andy Sonnanstine, Justin Duchscherer, Ben Sheets, Jair Jurrjens, John Danks, Barry Zito, Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Garza.
LOB% above 77%:
Jake Peavy, Shaun Marcum, Johan Santana, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Jeremy Guthrie, Edwin Jackson, Justin Duchscherer, CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Edinson Volquez, Carlos Zambrano, Jamie Moyer, Joe Saunders, Chad Billingsley, John Danks.
Conclusions
These lists are only including players with qualified plate appearances or innings pitched who have had lucky seasons in some way. I am not saying these players cannot have acceptable or even good seasons next year, but you will not be getting them at a discount and are not gaining an advantage by drafting them. I will follow this list with players on the other side who have had unlucky seasons and can be expected to be drafted later than they should be.
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