With that BABIP of .207 and the FIP of 5.11 we all know the crash is eminent, but when will it happen. He started to show signs of losing it this past week with a 4 homer game and escaping injury in another game when 6 runs went unearned due to an error.
What is the biggest factor to Floyd's success so far this year? His expected BABIP is only .248 so he is actually pitching well enough to limit line drives and keep a limit on hits. If his LD rate returns to normal ranges he would have a BABIP of .298 and that would call for more hits.
This is his most innings in the majors for a season yet so perhaps he has an ability to limit his LD against which would keep down the hit against.
His K/9 and BB/9 are the ones that screams for a regression. He is only striking out 5.48 batters per 9 innings and walking 3.29 every 9. This is a control (K/BB) of 1.67 which is very poor. He is living on the low line drive right now and also a below career average HR/FB rate.
The 4 homers are a sign he is getting hit again and hard. He will probably start to give up a few more line drives and the extra hits will result in him approaching his FIP of 5.11. I would move Floyd if the opportunity arises before he becomes a possible drop candidate.
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