I was going to suggest Arroyo as a pickup a few weeks ago, but something held me back. I thought after last night’s implosion it would be a good time to review what is wrong with him at least statistically. I will leave any injury questions up to Corey and the pitch f/x analysis. We can say at this point he will not be involved in any trades unless he puts together 3-4 good starts between now and the end or July.
I will mainly analyze his 2003-2008 stats, as that was when he was primarily used as a starting pitcher.
Other than 2006 when he had his breakout during a switch to the NL he has always been a 4 and above ERA type pitcher. Before that year he had been considered a 4 or 5 spot in the rotation. 2006 established a standard, which he will never again reach in my opinion.
Statistically speaking 2004 was actually his best year where he had a FIP of 3.82. His only FIP in the 2003-2008 years under 4.00. The question is why suddenly is he pitching so badly this year.
His K/9 of 8.48 is the best of his career and by more than a whole K per inning. He has also raised his BB/9 above career average by more than half a BB per inning. This has led to a better than usual K/BB of 2.48. These all should regress some, which is not good news at all.
His HR/9 is up as well which is leading to more runs. I am starting to wonder if he is having less movement on his pitches, which is leading to more K/BB/HR results on his pitching.
His BABIP has been well seen in the Blog world as he constantly is touted as a buy low since it is at .375. The reason it is so high though is he is carrying a LD% of 26.4% and while his GB% of 36.8% is around career levels it has taken from his FB% which means batters are getting better swings on his pitches. His expected BABIP is .384 so he is actually slightly outperforming his pitching. (I will review expected BABIP in my next Sabermetric Review) Batters are also getting 16.5% of FB for homers. This is 7% higher than his career level.
I won’t guess on any injury and I don’t have any data on his pitch movement, but something is telling me his pitches have been more hittable this year and not improving. Perhaps he has been trying to strikeout more hitters and in doing so has been lowering his fly ball rate. Being that Dusty Baker knows zero about pitching I worry that they might not figure him out this year.
In his next 2-3 starts watch for an increase in fly outs. If you see more fly outs and a return to 6-7 K/9 I would think he might see more success in the second half.
I'm not too worried about Arroyo. He just needs to kick back, down a couple of Purples, and get his energy back. Give him time!
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't roster him yet. It's almost July and his ERA is 6+. The only positive is his strikeouts which are quite good this year.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to be honest, that was a terrible analysis.
ReplyDeleteHis pitches aren't extra hittable (see Josh Kalk's analysis at HBT).
Just about all of the stat's you've quoted as demonstrating just how bad Arroyo has been, are all luck related stats (see: http://www.dome-dogs.com/2008/06/examining-wizard-roy-oswalt-case-study.html for a more detailed analysis of luck related pitching stats).
The only expectation that we can expect from here on out (given that Kalk has confirmed that his pitches are just as effective as ever) is that Arroyo should see his LD% and HR/9 (you should really be looking at HR/FB) return to his career levels/league average (his ERA would be 3.56 if his luck stats were in line with league averages, see http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/luck-leaders-week-10/).
Please review the Pitch f/x data put up about Arroyo on our site. http://www.rotosavants.com/2008/06/arroyo-pfx.html His arm is fatigued and his slider in his last start was 7 MPH slower than his average this year.
ReplyDeleteJosh Kalk claimed he saw good pitches and what he used to keep hitters off base, but never discussed if he was more hittable than previously. If he has changed something which has increased his K/9 and BB/9 that would cause averages to change.
I don't think you can just ignore FIP because LIPS sounds better. FIP is at 4.80.
I also did include HR/FB, but labeled it as homers per nine innings so it may have gotten over looked.