For those of you who haven't listened to the last podcast first of all you should, but my topic was selective streaming. To follow up with that advice I wanted to start giving regular updates on whom to target for streaming. First, the list that I targeted on the show, based on widely available pitchers with K/9 around 6.5 or greater.
Brandon Morrow
Jhoulys Chacin
Gio Gonzalez
Jonathan Niese
Anibal Sanchez
Randy Wells
Brian Matusz
Wade LeBlanc
Justin Masterson
Brett Cecil
Joe Blanton
Jeremy Bonderman
Dice-K
Aaron Harang
Targets for 9/2
Dice-K
Pros: 7.86 K/9 this year, he'll be pitching to the Orioles
Cons: Owned in nearly half of all Yahoo leagues, BB rate over 4
Joe Blanton
Pros: Solid BB and GB rates, facing the Rockies who are fourth in the majors in total K's
Cons: Borderline 6.39 K/9 for streaming
Jhoulys Chacin
Pros: Very strong K/9 of 9.62 and solid GB% mean Chacin should likely be owned, not streamed, in most leagues. Still he's only owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues.
Cons: Poor control numbers
If You're Desperate
Josh Timlin
Pros: Decent control in the minors, he'll be pitching in Seattle
Cons: Shown weak K/9 in brief stint in the majors and it wasn't that great in the minors
Progress Report
Ian Kennedy 8/31 7IP, 5K, 2BB, 7H, 1W, 3ER
Aaron Harang 8/31 4IP, 2K, 3BB, 8H, 0W, 1ER
Jonathan Niese 8/31 4.2IP, 6K, 3BB, 10H 0W, 3ER
Anibal Sanchez 8/31 7IP, 7K, 1BB, 3H, 0W, 0ER
Brian Matusz 8/31 6IP, 6K, 1BB, 6H, 1W, 2ER
Justin Masterson 8/31 7K, 2BB, 4H, 0W, 1ER
Totals So Far: 35.2IP, 33K, 1.40WHIP, 2.52ERA, 2Wins
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Wednesday, September 1
Tuesday, August 31
Roto Rundowns #16 - I Stream, You Stream...
Streaming pitchers is like fouling at the end of a basketball game; some people hate it, some love it. But no matter how you feel about the practice it's important not only to know when to stream and when not to but also who to stream and who not to. If you were waiting for the show in which I finally break down and give a list of players to target, this is it.
You can download the show here or on iTunes and as always thanks for Adam at adamkurtzmusic.com for the opening and closing themes.
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Sunday, August 29
We've Still Got a Long Way to go, People
Take a look at a couple of pitchers currently available in more than half of Yahoo leagues,
Pitcher A: K/9 7.86, BB/9 4.12
Pitcher B: K/9 9.62, BB/9 4.24
Who would you rather own in a fantasy league? The first pitcher is Dice-K, started in 42% of leagues, the second in Joulys Chacin, started in just 7%. That's right, a guy with better than a K/inning and an xFIP well under 4 is starting in just one out of every fourteen leagues. Maybe there are other factor coming into play like ground ball percentage? Dice-K 31.4, Chacin, a very respectable 45.2. Maybe track record or team played for? Of course then we have to face the fact that Matsuzaka is known for wildness, injuries, and not going enough innings to qualify for wins.
Bottom line, Chacin only just won his starting job back so we'll see how his ownership rate rises in the next few days but this case has gotten under my skin a bit. We've got a long way to go, people. Both in the 2010 fantasy season and in accurately valuing players.
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Pitcher A: K/9 7.86, BB/9 4.12
Pitcher B: K/9 9.62, BB/9 4.24
Who would you rather own in a fantasy league? The first pitcher is Dice-K, started in 42% of leagues, the second in Joulys Chacin, started in just 7%. That's right, a guy with better than a K/inning and an xFIP well under 4 is starting in just one out of every fourteen leagues. Maybe there are other factor coming into play like ground ball percentage? Dice-K 31.4, Chacin, a very respectable 45.2. Maybe track record or team played for? Of course then we have to face the fact that Matsuzaka is known for wildness, injuries, and not going enough innings to qualify for wins.
Bottom line, Chacin only just won his starting job back so we'll see how his ownership rate rises in the next few days but this case has gotten under my skin a bit. We've got a long way to go, people. Both in the 2010 fantasy season and in accurately valuing players.
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Friday, August 27
Maximizing Scherzer
In his first eight starts this year Max Scherzer posted such poor numbers that he was sent down to AAA to work on his mechanics. His fastball had lost something and a break from the majors was in order, at least, that was the party line from the Tigers. And in this case it appears to have been correct. Scherzer's average fast ball before being sent down was 91.8 mph, since his return it's been about two mph better at 93.7 according to Pitch F/X. Has that impressive increase made all the difference for Scherzer? After all, since his return he's posted extraordinary fantasy stats, 105.2 IP, 8 W, 109 K's, 1.96 ERA, 1.10 WHIP. Are we now seeing "The real Max Scherzer," an ace with Zach Greinke '09 type stuff? Unfortunately, the answer is no. As is so often true, Scherzer wasn't as bad to begin the season as his fantasy stats suggested and he hasn't been as good since as those same stats suggest.
Looking at him month to month we see that the beginning of the year really was his worst period as he posted an average-ish 4.37 xFIP followed by a poor 5.05 in April and May. Since his return his monthly xFIP's have been 3.28, 4.07, and 3.67 in June, July, and August respectively. Those numbers are certainly indicative of fantasy value in almost any league, they just don't look quite as nice as the incredible, LOB% aided, fantasy numbers that he has put up in those times.
It will be interesting to see how Scherzer is valued in fantasy leagues in 2011 as some manager may be gun shy after being burned by his April and May while others may think Scherzer will an undervalued ace. While I'd lean more towards the ace side of the fence, somewhere in the middle is probably right until he can get his BB rate down under 3.
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Looking at him month to month we see that the beginning of the year really was his worst period as he posted an average-ish 4.37 xFIP followed by a poor 5.05 in April and May. Since his return his monthly xFIP's have been 3.28, 4.07, and 3.67 in June, July, and August respectively. Those numbers are certainly indicative of fantasy value in almost any league, they just don't look quite as nice as the incredible, LOB% aided, fantasy numbers that he has put up in those times.
It will be interesting to see how Scherzer is valued in fantasy leagues in 2011 as some manager may be gun shy after being burned by his April and May while others may think Scherzer will an undervalued ace. While I'd lean more towards the ace side of the fence, somewhere in the middle is probably right until he can get his BB rate down under 3.
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Wednesday, August 25
Nine more Appearances and He'll be Outfielder Eligible
Like many, I'm a sucker for the oddities of baseball. Give me a highlight real of balks and inside the park home runs over grand slams and strikeouts any day. That's why, when I heard about Roy Oswalt's game last night I found all the video I could about it. To recap, in the 14th inning of a tie game Ryan Howard was ejected for arguing a check swing call but the Phillies had used up every position player on their roster. After conferencing for a minute or so the coaches asked Oswalt to grab his glove and head out to left field while Raul Ibanez covered first. Check out the video of the entire incident here,
http://network.yardbarker.com/mlb/article_external/video_roy_oswalt_plays_left_field_against_his_former_teammates/3108417
It's great to see something new in baseball (apparently the last pitcher to play the outfield for the Phils was in 1935) and great to see Oswalt and Ibanez make plays at their unfamiliar positions, Oswalt on a ball right to him and Ibanez on a tough bunt by Michael Bourn, but I wonder whether this is another situation in which managers are missing value on the playing field. I'm certainly not the first to say so but wouldn't it make sense to try to find pitchers, especially lefty specialists, who might be able to play an acceptable left field so that they can skip righties in the lineup? I'd love to see someone run the numbers on the value of such a situation. And if such a trend does catch on then according to the rules of most fantasy leagues, those pitchers would start to become outfield eligible. If you had such a player on your team would you really be able to switch him from the pitching side of your lineup to the hitting side? Probably not, the big hosts would find a way around allowing such a move even though it would be a counterproductive strategy for fantasy purposes anyway unless it caught on with starters. Still, I'd vote for allowing pitcher hitting stats to count for those who make enough appearances at a non-pitcher position. After all, I'm a sucker for the oddities of baseball.
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http://network.yardbarker.com/mlb/article_external/video_roy_oswalt_plays_left_field_against_his_former_teammates/3108417
It's great to see something new in baseball (apparently the last pitcher to play the outfield for the Phils was in 1935) and great to see Oswalt and Ibanez make plays at their unfamiliar positions, Oswalt on a ball right to him and Ibanez on a tough bunt by Michael Bourn, but I wonder whether this is another situation in which managers are missing value on the playing field. I'm certainly not the first to say so but wouldn't it make sense to try to find pitchers, especially lefty specialists, who might be able to play an acceptable left field so that they can skip righties in the lineup? I'd love to see someone run the numbers on the value of such a situation. And if such a trend does catch on then according to the rules of most fantasy leagues, those pitchers would start to become outfield eligible. If you had such a player on your team would you really be able to switch him from the pitching side of your lineup to the hitting side? Probably not, the big hosts would find a way around allowing such a move even though it would be a counterproductive strategy for fantasy purposes anyway unless it caught on with starters. Still, I'd vote for allowing pitcher hitting stats to count for those who make enough appearances at a non-pitcher position. After all, I'm a sucker for the oddities of baseball.
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Tuesday, August 24
Roto Rundowns #15 - Catching up with my Teams
I take a look back at the decisions I've made this year and how they've effected my three fantasy teams. Should I have started streaming pitchers already in my casual league? How has my closer strategy worked out in the Rotosavants readers league?
You can download the show here or on iTunes and as always thanks for Adam at adamkurtzmusic.com for the opening and closing themes.
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Monday, August 23
Tommy Hunter Pitches to Contact
Talk about an interesting stat line for Tommy Hunter last night. He pitched eight innings and only gave up three runs on five hits, but struck out no batters and walked no one. Every batter resulted in a ball in play and yet only five hits fell in. Hunter has experienced a lot of luck already this year, but it just keeps coming. He isn't worth using as he can't get strikeouts and his ERA is much lower than his xFIP of 4.93.
Where do we go with Jason Heyward from here? He hit two homers yesterday and now has 16 on the season. After starting on fire this year he has dealt with knee, ankle and groin DTD injuries. This has slowed him down and he went from 10 homers by May to 2 the rest of the year before last night. He still has some strikeout troubles, but he is still a special talent. He might be headed to a solid finish based on yesterday, but his value in 2011 may become undervalued due to the injuries.
I recommended Mike Minor about two weeks ago when he faced the hapless Astros and so far he has made a solid impact, but yesterday was another start against a poor lineup in the Cubs. He went off though with 12 strikeouts in 7 innings with only one walk. He gave up 3 earned runs, but has been strong so far and could be a solid choice for the remainder of the year. He also plays for a playoff contender and should help with a win or two.
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Where do we go with Jason Heyward from here? He hit two homers yesterday and now has 16 on the season. After starting on fire this year he has dealt with knee, ankle and groin DTD injuries. This has slowed him down and he went from 10 homers by May to 2 the rest of the year before last night. He still has some strikeout troubles, but he is still a special talent. He might be headed to a solid finish based on yesterday, but his value in 2011 may become undervalued due to the injuries.
I recommended Mike Minor about two weeks ago when he faced the hapless Astros and so far he has made a solid impact, but yesterday was another start against a poor lineup in the Cubs. He went off though with 12 strikeouts in 7 innings with only one walk. He gave up 3 earned runs, but has been strong so far and could be a solid choice for the remainder of the year. He also plays for a playoff contender and should help with a win or two.
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Friday, August 20
Carl Pavano throws...a gem?
Last night Carl Pavano went six innings for the Twins in a losing effort. He walked no one but gave up fifteen hits, a career high. He induced sixteen ground balls, one shy of his season high, while giving up just four fly balls but also allowed seven earned runs, a season high.
So what's the moral of the story? What do we conclude when a pitcher shows excellent control, 76% of his pitches were strikes, induces bundles of ground balls, 64 percent ground ball rate, but still gets shelled? Unless we have some reason not too, this looks like a classic case of a pitcher ending up on the wrong side of variance.
On Tuesday Troy and I looked at how Pitch F/X can help us to look at cases like these so I thought I'd pull up the numbers. Pavano threw fewer four-seamers last night but other than that his pitch selection and movement look pretty similar to his season to date numbers. One more data point for the bad luck hypothesis.
In the end last night may not have been a gem for Pavano, he only struck out three batters and allowed too many line drives, but all of the data suggest that Pavano was pitching well. Pavano owners can rest easy knowing that he'll be fine to make his next start. Ron Gardenhire also deserves praise for sticking with his pitcher through a rough patch, even sending him out in the seventh after he'd already "given up" five earned runs.
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So what's the moral of the story? What do we conclude when a pitcher shows excellent control, 76% of his pitches were strikes, induces bundles of ground balls, 64 percent ground ball rate, but still gets shelled? Unless we have some reason not too, this looks like a classic case of a pitcher ending up on the wrong side of variance.
On Tuesday Troy and I looked at how Pitch F/X can help us to look at cases like these so I thought I'd pull up the numbers. Pavano threw fewer four-seamers last night but other than that his pitch selection and movement look pretty similar to his season to date numbers. One more data point for the bad luck hypothesis.
In the end last night may not have been a gem for Pavano, he only struck out three batters and allowed too many line drives, but all of the data suggest that Pavano was pitching well. Pavano owners can rest easy knowing that he'll be fine to make his next start. Ron Gardenhire also deserves praise for sticking with his pitcher through a rough patch, even sending him out in the seventh after he'd already "given up" five earned runs.
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Matusz Looks for a Solid End to 2010
This year has been up and down for Brian Matusz and last night was a solid start for him. He went 8 innings giving up no runs and having 6 Ks and 1 BB. There are some red flags for the future of Matusz though. This season he has struggled with walks, but those should get better. The concern is his extreme fly ball numbers will lead to high home run totals against. That doesn't mean he can't be a solid pitcher, but my guess for 2011 is similar to Phil Hughes this year with less wins in Baltimore.
Just yesterday I wrote about the Power Decline in 2010 and a prime candidate is Brad Hawpe who was released yesterday. He is sure to be added to another team soon and likely a playoff contender. Don't expect much fantasy wise as he won't likely be a starter unless perhaps he ends up in Boston. The big question is about the power though and will it be there in his new location and away from Coors field. His career OPS is 50 points lower on the road making a move concerning, but so is the ISO of .178 overall this year. Unless he is injured there isn't much to explain this year. I would label this as an injury or fluke year and he should hit at least 20 homers somewhere else next year.
Something clicked this year for Cole Hamels and although the results were not there he has been striking out hitters at a level around where he was in 2006 and 2007. That is about a strikeout per inning and he continued that yesterday. His fastball is 2 mph faster this year than any other year and batters are swinging and missing at pitches out of the zone. It will be interesting to see if batters start to take more pitches, but so far they haven't caught on yet.
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Just yesterday I wrote about the Power Decline in 2010 and a prime candidate is Brad Hawpe who was released yesterday. He is sure to be added to another team soon and likely a playoff contender. Don't expect much fantasy wise as he won't likely be a starter unless perhaps he ends up in Boston. The big question is about the power though and will it be there in his new location and away from Coors field. His career OPS is 50 points lower on the road making a move concerning, but so is the ISO of .178 overall this year. Unless he is injured there isn't much to explain this year. I would label this as an injury or fluke year and he should hit at least 20 homers somewhere else next year.
Something clicked this year for Cole Hamels and although the results were not there he has been striking out hitters at a level around where he was in 2006 and 2007. That is about a strikeout per inning and he continued that yesterday. His fastball is 2 mph faster this year than any other year and batters are swinging and missing at pitches out of the zone. It will be interesting to see if batters start to take more pitches, but so far they haven't caught on yet.
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Thursday, August 19
Volquez Walking his Way to Next Season
The good news when looking at Edinson Volquez this year is he has returned from Tommy John with his velocity. The bad news is his control has been as bad as could be guessed. Before last night's game he had a BB/9 of 6.37 in his limited 29.2 IP. Not a big sample, but with a zone percentage of only 36 percent he needs a lot of work on his control. I would not use Volquez for the remainder of 2010, but given a full spring next year he should be a solid pick for 2011.
Don't be fooled by the sudden power burst by Mariners infielder Matt Tuiasosopo who has 2 homers in his last 2 games. That gives him 3 homers in only 79 plate appearances. His minor league numbers do not support this power though. He had 13 homers at Triple-A in 500 PA. Don't expect more than that in a full season and if you add him now you can hope for maybe 2 more in the rest of this season.
I got into a discussion about the future of Evan Longoria with Dave Brown of Yahoo! Big League Stew on twitter yesterday. His comment was he expected Longoria to become the greatest ever. I assumed he meant third baseman and had to jump on this one. I can't even say this one is a debate unless Longoria takes a huge step forward. Mike Schmidt in my opinion is the greatest third baseman ever and has the numbers to back it up. His WAR total ranks number one and if you look at his year to year he had three seasons over 8.4 by 25 and a 9.9 in his age 24 year. Longoria has only reached 7.1 in his first three seasons. My opinion is he will be great, but not the greatest ever.
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Don't be fooled by the sudden power burst by Mariners infielder Matt Tuiasosopo who has 2 homers in his last 2 games. That gives him 3 homers in only 79 plate appearances. His minor league numbers do not support this power though. He had 13 homers at Triple-A in 500 PA. Don't expect more than that in a full season and if you add him now you can hope for maybe 2 more in the rest of this season.
I got into a discussion about the future of Evan Longoria with Dave Brown of Yahoo! Big League Stew on twitter yesterday. His comment was he expected Longoria to become the greatest ever. I assumed he meant third baseman and had to jump on this one. I can't even say this one is a debate unless Longoria takes a huge step forward. Mike Schmidt in my opinion is the greatest third baseman ever and has the numbers to back it up. His WAR total ranks number one and if you look at his year to year he had three seasons over 8.4 by 25 and a 9.9 in his age 24 year. Longoria has only reached 7.1 in his first three seasons. My opinion is he will be great, but not the greatest ever.
Follow the new @RotoSavants tweet account.
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