Return of Daisuke Matsuzaka

Guess what pitchers returning from Tommy John struggle with in their return to the majors?  Control.  I guess it can't get much worse than the control Daisuke Matsuzaka has displayed in his career, but just on instinct I would say it's not going to be better.

Matsuzaka has made six starts at Triple-A and totalled 28.1 innings.  The numbers are not anything to instill confidence although interestingly his walk rate has been well controlled.  His K/9 has been very low at 6.35, but his walk rate has been abnormally low for Matsuzaka at 2.22.

That 2.86 K/BB is better than any season Matsuzaka has thrown in the majors.  According to reports his last start he was touching 94 mph with his fastball, which he hadn't done since 2010.

Counting on Felix Doubront

Not only are the Boston Red Sox counting on Felix Doubront right now, but so are many fantasy owners as he is now owned in 70 percent of fantasy leagues.  There is a lot of question about his ability to maintain this level of production, but is he doing anything difeerently to suggest he's figured things out?

This season Doubront is throwing a bit differently with less four seam fastballs and a jump in two seamers, cutters and a rise in change-ups as well.  Does this explain why Doubront has suddenly started striking out so many batters.  His K/9 stands at 9.53 this far compared to a career 8.75 rate.

According to pitch values the pitch that has benefited Doubront the most is his change-up.  In his career his change-up has been worth 0.44 runs per 100 change-ups thrown.  This season though his change-up has been worth 2.98 runs per one hundred thrown.

The change-up isn't different overall with similar speed and movement, but it has a higher called strike rate, whiff rate and a lower rate of being called a ball.  The pitch is one of the better change-ups in baseball this season with a whiff rate 22 percent better than league average.

Biggest Gainer: Dexter Fowler

Whenever someone makes a big gain in ownership I like to judge whether or not the things he's doing to gain owners is actually something he can keep doing. This past week Dexter Fowler has gained 62 percent in ESPN leagues now standing at 97.8 percent ownership. As I stated yesterday only Fowler has been better offensively than Paul Goldschmidt in the past 14 days according to wOBA.

So far this season Fowler has hit more homers in 53 games than any projection system gave him for the full season. His stat line of .288/.388/.562 is better than anyone could have imagined. The problem here is that Fowler is not going to keep this up and you should look to trade him ASAP.

If you go to Fowlers home and away splits you can spot the problem right away. In 29 games at home this season Fowler has hit 7 of his 8 home runs and his split line is a hall of fame level at .354/.461/.708. His BABIP at home is an unbelievable .415 and his HR/FB of 31.8 percent is unbelievable even in Coor's Field before the humidor.

On the road Fowler has played 21 games and looked more like a minor league journeyman. His strikeouts are at 30 percent on the road and he has one homer. His stat line of .175/.254/.316 is absolutely atrocious. This isn't a first for Fowler and his career home vs away stats show a similar trend as it does for most Rockies players.

In his career Fowler has a solid stat line in his home park. He has 17 homers in Coors and 6 on the road, a .290 average at Coor's and .238 on the road and lastly a .386 wOBA at Coor's and .304 on the road. In fantasy terms this makes Fowler a top fantasy talent in Coor's that you would draft as a top 10 outfielder if he played 162 games at home, but a fringe steals guy if he played 162 on the road. If you added Fowler your best bet if you can is to rotate him in during home games and then bench him on the road.

Last Chance to Add Paul Goldschmidt

After a terrible start and splitting time with Lyle Overbay it looks like Paul Goldschmidt is finally getting things moving in the right direction.  It's time to move on Goldschmidt if he's still available in your league as he'll be owned in any active league.

In the past 14 days Goldschmidt has been the second best hitter in baseball behind Dexter Fowler by wOBA.  That power was what many expected from Goldschmidt this season, but he's been unable to supply so far.

Before this week Goldschmidt was only owned in around 20 percent of ESPN leagues.  As of Tuesday that had risen to 54 percent and was still rising.  Anyone with an opening at first base or corner infielder should have already added him, but if you haven't do it right away.

Link Roundup

This was my post from last week on Chris Sale

I took a look at Johan Santana after the no-hitter

Promotion Targets including Lonnie Chisenhall

The troubles with Detroit hitters

A very in-depth (long) look at Brian Matusz

Follow me @TroyPatterson

Drafting Steals or Maybe Not

How many teams out there drafted options for their 20-30 steal potential?  Sure you picked Michael Bourn, Emilio Bonifacio or even Cameron Maybin.  You've gotten your value so far if steals is what you wanted, but was it the best option when looking at players who specialize in steals*?

*Bourn might not fit this category as much as the others.

Just looking at the available boards on ESPN I can find plenty of targets already this season who would fill the same role and wouldn't have cost you a draft pick.  Here is a list of potential players with ownership less than 50 percent in ESPN leagues.

Player        Position   SB    Owned
Tony Campana    OF       16    14.6%
Jordan Schafer  OF       14    43.3%
Rajai Davis     OF       10     3.0%
Jemile Weeks    2B       10    49.1%
Gerardo Parra   OF       10    15.4%
Maicer Izturis  2B, 3B    9     0.9%
Elliot Johnson  SS        9    22.2%