2009 SP Points Breakouts Revisited

Later this week I'll have my list of SP to target for 2010. Today, I'm taking a look at the guys that I targeted as breakouts for 2009, to see how they did. The original marker for breaking out was a K/9 over 6.3, which correlates with a high chance of earning 400 points. Here are the players with their 2009 K/9, and my commentary.

W. Rodriguez: 8.4 K/9, 491 pts in 205 IP. Now an ace, and could still be undervalued in 2010.
J. de la Rosa: 9.4 K/9, 415 pts in 185 IP. Goes to show that the strikeout pitchers are worth it, even with high walk rates.
JA Happ: 6.5 K/9, 399 pts in 166 IP. His K/9 is still high enough to be productive; even with likely rise in ERA and WHIP, a higher innings total means he could come near 400 points again.
J. Johnson: 8.2 K/9, 548 pts in 209 IP. As I said last year, just needed health.
U. Jimenez: 8.2 K/9, 508 pts in 218 IP. Better walk rate really made his point total soar.
J. Jurrjens: 6.4 K/9, 518 pts in 215 IP. Exceptional ERA partly luck and was a contributor to his point total, but he maintained his K/9 and got more IP to easily reach the 400 mark.
A. Sanchez: Injuries derailed year. Second half K/9 (7.6) still shows he can be good value, if he ever pitches a full season.
B. Arroyo: 5.2 K/9; 451 pts in 220 IP. An exception to my rule; high IP, respectable ERA/WHIP, and wins and QS helped him make the cut. Add in his three-year average K/9 (6.4) and he could be a sleeper in 2010.
I. Snell: 5.5 K/9. Big drop last year, but if he can reverse it, and if he can benefit from a better team and a pitcher’s park, then he could be a sleeper in 2010; I’m hopeful for 350 points.
S. Marshall: 7.2 K/9. I said it last year and I’ll say it this year: needs rotation spot. With Lilly out, maybe he’ll get one.
D. Purcey: 7.3 K/9 in short MLB stint. Considered a bullpen guy after terrible 2009 ERA and WHIP in both majors and minors.
M. Owings: 5.1 K/9. Heading in wrong direction, not guaranteed rotation spot.

Roto Rundowns #3 - Troy Patterson part II

Troy and I continue out conversation about statistical analysis in fantasy baseball and take a detailed look at Justin Upton vs. Grady Sizemore.



You can download the show directly here.
Special thanks to Adam at adamkurtzmusic.com for providing the opening and closing theme. Adam is still generously offering his album for free to Roto Rundowns listeners, just follow the link.

Friday Rewind - March 19, 2010

Here are some links from RS as well as around the baseball blog-o-sphere. You can also check out our Draft Rankings so far.

First up we would like to remind you to contact us with questions for our email segment. Send questions to troypatterson@rotosavants.com

Matt Hagen has a look at the top corner infield prospects.

FanGraphs gives a look at the Dodgers Second Base job.

Best and Worst values by position from Razzball.

The promise that is Max Scherzer.

Here are some links from RotoSavants you might want to take a look at.

Well he definitely disagrees, but I compare James Shields and Roy Oswalt in Clone Wars.

Will Jesus Montero be the Yankees savior?

Listen to Roto Rundowns #2.

Don't forget to follow our feed and follow my Twitter @TroyPatterson

Buster Posey Plays First Base: So What?

Giants super-prospect Buster Posey played first base on Tuesday and went 1-for-3.

What does this mean for fantasy players? Probably nothing. However, it could mean Posey could be valuable in the long term.

The Giants have aging Benjie Molina behind the plate for 2010, mostly because nobody else wanted him in the market this past winter. The Giants also filled their first base spot with a (disgusting) signing of 33-year old Aubrey Huff.

Can Posey push Huff? Probably not without an injury to the recent signee. Posey also got a break when Travis Ishikawa tore ligaments in his left foot before camp. However, Huff fell off a cliff last year after being traded to the Tigers, hitting .189/.265/.302 and finished with a career-low .241 average.

Posey is obviously a perfect late round sleeper in many deep leagues but not a worth a single-digit round draft pick even in two-catcher leagues. Posey's .429 average, one home run and 7 RBIs have given him an ample amount of attention on big league camp and the Giants will have a hard decision with him.

Bruce Bochy told the San Francisco Chronicle that the main concern is about Posey getting playing time. When Molina has caught in spring games, Posey has played first and been designated-hitter. If Huff and Molina occupy both spots, albeit their effectiveness might be questioned, expect Posey to spend time in the minors.

Expect Posey to receive a Matt Wieters in 2009-like call up in May or June if Molina shows he is in, an eventual, decline. When the Giants bring him up, it will be for him to play, unlike in 2009 when they brought him up as a defensive replacement.

Like with players, use statistics to win at slots, roulette and other online casino games.

Roto Rundowns #2 - Troy Patterson

In this episode Troy and I discuss draft preparation and how to use in depth sabermetric statistics to evaluate players for fantasy purposes. We cap things off with a detailed look at Joey Votto vs. Adrian Gonzalez.




You can download the show at or directly here.
Special thanks to Adam at adamkurtzmusic.com for providing the opening and closing theme.

*A quick technical note: somehow the unedited version of this episode made it up to iTunes. I would highly recommend waiting for the edited version as the original had some serious audio problems. In other words, avoid the episode marked as 3/11.

**It is now quite easy to avoid the 3/11 show on iTunes as none off the shows are showing up on iTunes right now. I'm working on resolving the issue but for now you can download the episode as listed above.

Minor League Talents - Jesus Montero

Looking back at the Baseball America list we see that next on the list is Jesus Montero. He is the number 4 prospect according to the list.

Jesus Montero - C - New York Yankees

Injury and Health
The concern with Montero is his height and weight will quickly push him from behind the plate. At 6-4 and over 230 pounds he is not long for the catcher spot. With Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira around for the long haul the corner spots are full. Perhaps a few years at catcher can be completed, but a corner outfield or DH spot seems like his future as long as he is in New York.

There were also some rumors he lied about his age when his bonus was dropped from $2 million to $1.65 million. Those rumors were denied, but no reason for the decrease in bonus was given.

Skill Set
Much like last week with Mike Stanton we are looking at a huge power bat. Much like Stanton though I'm not sure he has a great eye. His walk rate has been below 8 percent in the minors including his short time in Double-A.

He is more of a contact hitter in his approach though as he has a much better strikeout rate than someone like Stanton. He is striking out less than 16 percent since rookie league. This combination is similar to Brian McCann who walks 8 percent of the time and strikes out 14 percent. Montero has the power to be better according to BA who rates his power at an 80 out of 80.

We're talking about someone who should be hitting at least .300 with 30 homers, but the OBP might not be everything we would like. This really does make him a good comparison to McCann with more power. The problem is has he already outgrown the catcher spot and will he be more of a Pablo Sandoval who also had to leave the catcher position.

Montero takes batting practice:

Major League ETA and Conclusion
With only 181 PA at Double-A he has a ticket back to Trenton Thunder or even Triple-A Scranton with a solid spring to start 2010 and with the Yankees having no opening for him the rest of the year seams very unlikely. Jorge Posada is signed through the end of 2011 making next season even a stretch. This rules out Montero from drafts except in leagues with a minor league system.

Friday Rewind - March 12, 2010

Here are some links from RS as well as around the baseball blog-o-sphere. You can also check out our Draft Rankings so far.

First up we would like to remind you to contact us with questions for our email segment. Send questions to troypatterson@rotosavants.com

My Clone Wars look at Jonathon Papelbon and future closer Daniel Bard.

So how will the Twins solve the Closer problem?

A Game of Inches pulls together the draft rankings or Yahoo!, ESPN and MDC.

Here are some links from RotoSavants you might want to take a look at.

No not that Mike Stanton...the good Mike Stanton.

Who was consistent and does that make them H2H values?

Don't forget to check out the first episode of our new podcast Roto Rundown with Aaron Murray.

Don't forget to follow our feed and follow my Twitter @TroyPatterson