The Return of Johan Santana

Friday night Johan Santana threw not only the first no hitter of his career, but also the first in Mets history.  After missing all of 2011 with shoulder surgery Santana has returned and pitched very well through 11 games including the no-hitter, but should the velocity issues be any concern or can he continue to pitch at this level?

Since 2008 Santana has lost nearly one mile pre hour from his fastball each season.  He's also lost similar amounts on his slider and change-up.  This season his fastball is about 88 miles per hour and his change-up is down to 77 miles per hour.  His change-up motion has always been amazing though and hitters still appear to be fooled by the pitch.

In his career 37 percent of changes resulted in a whiff, but in 2012 that rate is up to 41 percent.  The same can be said for his fastball and slider though this season.  Why are hitters having such trouble connecting with his stuff this season even though it's considerably slower?

Players to Add: Daniel Nava

In my DL post today I discussed Daniel Nava as a short term option for the injury to Matt Kemp.  I'm willing to go a bit further and say Nava should be owned in a few more leagues.  Currently Nava is owned in 21 percent of ESPN leagues, but until the Red Sox are forced to make some choices with Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury returning I would be willing to add and play Nava to cover injuries or a traded outfielder.

In 21 games so far Nava has walked in 17.6 percent of his plate appearances.  That puts him third among all hitters behind only Adam Dunn and Joey Votto so far this season.  This plate discipline is something Nava has been developing over the past few seasons.

In 2010 Nava held a walk rate of 8 percent in Triple-A and 10 percent in the majors.  The Red Sox never needed Nava in 2011, but his walk rate continued to climb with a 13.4 percent back at Triple-A.  He also made some strides in contact with a 17 percent strikeout rate in that season.

The Red Sox had no reason to plan to use Nava this season and he ended up being the seventh option placed in the outfield.  In 27 games in Triple-A before the call-up his stat line was an impressive .316/.421/.505.  He's continued that in the majors with a .277/.424/.477 stat line.

There are some things not to expect with Nava though.  His numbers are over his head at this point, but where he will regress to is unknown.  His greatest HR total was split between levels in 2010 with 11 and that year he stole a combined 5 bases.  Last year though he was able to hit 10 home runs and steal 10 bases making him a fair five tool option.

Batting leadoff most nights for the Red Sox Nava is going to score plenty of runs just by being on base.  Ignoring what happens when the Boston outfield gets crowded Nava should be a short term solution for teams in 5x5 or OBP leagues.  With Kemp out, Markakis on the DL and both Ellsbury and Crawford still out Nava could help a good number of teams.  Obviously he is a must in any AL-only league.

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The DL Continues to Claim Victims

After taking several names the other day the DL is back to claim Matt Kemp and Troy Tulowitzki.  Both players are dealing with lower body strains.  These are again significant blows to fantasy teams by taking top level talent out of your lineup.

Matt Kemp - OF

This is a re injury of the same hamstring and Kemp suggested he expects to miss a month now.  This is a huge setback for his owners as he has picked up right were he left off last season.  Actually Kemp has been even better taking walks in nearly 15 percent of his plate appearances.

His power and contact have been great as well and if healthy he was sure to top 35 home runs.  This injury though will probably drop his home runs below 30 for the season and the steals total might drop to the teens.  A big drop for what was one of the best players entering 2012.

Handling the Kevin Youkilis - Will Middlebrooks Situation

As a Kevin Youkilis owner I added Will Middlebrooks for his DL stint and benefited from his fast start.  Now though the situation is murky and if you have one or both you might be wondering who to start day to day.

So far the only bonus has been Youkilis has found himself with first base eligibility in most leagues after getting a few games there.  He's also hit better than before the injury and is starting to show some plate discipline with a walk rate now above 11 percent in May.

Middlebrooks certainly doesn't have anything like that level of plate discipline, but his power has played very well so far.  The bad news is eventually his lack of walks and his frightening strikeout rate of 30 percent is going to catch up to him.  He won't be a bad player, but there is no way Middlebrooks is a .300 hitter with a full season of at bats.

Chris Sale as Cy Young Candidate

My latest piece is up at The Hardball Times discussing how good Chris Sale has been as a starter. Head over and check it out

Chris Sale from reliever to ace

Timing a Manny Ramirez Pickup

While Roy Oswalt is signed he probably won't be immediately ready, but the Athletics are suggesting Manny Ramirez could be recalled as early as Friday.  He is technically eligible to complete his suspension on Wednesday, but the team feels he might need some more time.

The big question is will he get the playing time and can he still be a valuable fantasy player.  I'm not so sure yet and I wouldn't add Manny in my leagues just yet.  His power is yet to be found and without that he's not going to add much to your team.  In Triple-A he has totalled zero extra base hits in eight games so far.

That is certainly a small sample, but not even a double yet has to be worrying.  Top that off with having to head to Oakland and you have to expect Ramirez won't be supplying fantasy teams with many home runs.