Ever since this blog launched I have been using certain numbers to show luck and skill to find the best players in fantasy baseball. We have discussed many of them and you can find my favorites at this post. These are the ones I use first to rate a player.
One of the important ones for pitchers is FIP, but as we have discussed there are some holes in the numbers. FIP does not account for HR/FB% or FB% numbers. I was stubborn to switch to any other analysis since I liked the results and I knew to look for these factors.
I have decided to switch to xFIP, which is an adjustment of the original FIP. FIP was created by Tom Tango who was nice enough to talk with us earlier this year. The creation of xFIP was just an adjustment of the HR in the calculation done by Dave Studemen at THT. Let's look at the calculations:
FIP = (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP
So this leaves a stat(HR) that is effected by luck and variance.
xFIP = ((FB*.11)*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP
Looking this over the big change is a removal of HR for fly balls allowed times .11, which was the league average HR/FB. How much of a change did this make in a large amount of data?
Colin Wyers also at THT wrote on that today and found the root mean square error for each projection (including tRA). His findings showed that ERA was the worst predictor of future ERA as we would all assume, but xFIP and tRA are slightly better than FIP. He assumes we should stick to larger projection systems, but that is not in the context of fantasy sports. In fantasy baseball we have a different requirement for statistical analysis and can use these much differently.
So from know on I will be using xFIP in my analysis and any differences between xFIP and ERA are more tightly linked to a factor of luck. We will still have the occasional case with low HR% or a Javier Vazquez case, but the analysis should be greatly improved overall. find Home Opener tickets for MLB games
Thursday, February 23
Wednesday, July 20
Reader Email: Stretch Run Trade
Joe wrote in to ask us how to improve his team for the stretch run and challenge for first.
A guy has offered me Todd Helton, Ubaldo Jimenez, Nick Swisher and Jered Weaver for Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton and Mark Teixeira. Is this a good trade? I'm reluctant about this one!! I'm in a 10 team mixed league rotisserie. I am in the top 5 in all categories except SB, ERA, and WHIP...and could also use some more saves. I'm in sixth place 1 pt behind the fifth place team but 16.5 pts behind the 1st place team so I'm lookin to shake things up. Here's a few more players on my team: Uggla, JJ Hardy, Cuddyer, Konerko, Farnsworth, Gallardo, Hudson, Soria, CJ Wilson, Zimmerman, Lohse, and League. Here are some of his other players: Mauer, Kinsler, Ar Ramirez, Andrus, Longoria, Beltran, Morse, Pence, Bourn, D Price, Nathan, Axford, Felix Hernandez, and Beckett. Could you please help me form a good trade that makes sense and would help me the rest of the way. The other owner says almost everybody on his team is tradeable...he is in 9th place.
On first glance, Joe, this trade is not in your favor. One quick way I judge a trade like this is to rank the player on each side, line them up, and do a one for one comparison. Doing that for this team, I don't see how you can even break even. The competing team is clearly trying to buy low on Hamilton and Crawford's injury stints. Even if we say Teixeira and Weaver are a wash (and they aren't, the elite hitters are always more valuable than your elite pitchers), you're getting a raw deal. Jiminez's walk rate has ballooned since last year, Swisher would be more valuable if you were in an OBP league, but his sub .800 OPS isn't worth selling low on Crawford. If you didn't include Tex, I could see the overall trade being more fair.
However, here's my recommendation: if you need to make up ground in SB, ERA, WHIP, and saves, there's no reason to trade a guy who can help you there (Crawford) for it. Saves you can grab on the wire if needed. Guys change jobs and get traded in these next few weeks.
Try to isolate Hamilton in a 1 for 1 deal for a starter. It's a 10 team league, so you should be able to replace Hamilton's homeruns with a more cost effective option (Trumbo), and get another team to pay for the Hamilton pedigree for that elite pitcher. Start this off by offering Hamilton for Weaver. Advertise you are selling Hamilton for a starter. Remember, you can't sell your bats too low, you're only getting 10-12 starts from your new acquisition.
Ride out Crawford. He'll start hitting in Boston, and start running as well; he should easily bounce back for the 2nd half.
If you have any more questions, make sure to contact us on Twitter: @Rotosavants and @fenwayhotspur if you want to reach me directly. Good luck!
A guy has offered me Todd Helton, Ubaldo Jimenez, Nick Swisher and Jered Weaver for Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton and Mark Teixeira. Is this a good trade? I'm reluctant about this one!! I'm in a 10 team mixed league rotisserie. I am in the top 5 in all categories except SB, ERA, and WHIP...and could also use some more saves. I'm in sixth place 1 pt behind the fifth place team but 16.5 pts behind the 1st place team so I'm lookin to shake things up. Here's a few more players on my team: Uggla, JJ Hardy, Cuddyer, Konerko, Farnsworth, Gallardo, Hudson, Soria, CJ Wilson, Zimmerman, Lohse, and League. Here are some of his other players: Mauer, Kinsler, Ar Ramirez, Andrus, Longoria, Beltran, Morse, Pence, Bourn, D Price, Nathan, Axford, Felix Hernandez, and Beckett. Could you please help me form a good trade that makes sense and would help me the rest of the way. The other owner says almost everybody on his team is tradeable...he is in 9th place.
On first glance, Joe, this trade is not in your favor. One quick way I judge a trade like this is to rank the player on each side, line them up, and do a one for one comparison. Doing that for this team, I don't see how you can even break even. The competing team is clearly trying to buy low on Hamilton and Crawford's injury stints. Even if we say Teixeira and Weaver are a wash (and they aren't, the elite hitters are always more valuable than your elite pitchers), you're getting a raw deal. Jiminez's walk rate has ballooned since last year, Swisher would be more valuable if you were in an OBP league, but his sub .800 OPS isn't worth selling low on Crawford. If you didn't include Tex, I could see the overall trade being more fair.
However, here's my recommendation: if you need to make up ground in SB, ERA, WHIP, and saves, there's no reason to trade a guy who can help you there (Crawford) for it. Saves you can grab on the wire if needed. Guys change jobs and get traded in these next few weeks.
Try to isolate Hamilton in a 1 for 1 deal for a starter. It's a 10 team league, so you should be able to replace Hamilton's homeruns with a more cost effective option (Trumbo), and get another team to pay for the Hamilton pedigree for that elite pitcher. Start this off by offering Hamilton for Weaver. Advertise you are selling Hamilton for a starter. Remember, you can't sell your bats too low, you're only getting 10-12 starts from your new acquisition.
Ride out Crawford. He'll start hitting in Boston, and start running as well; he should easily bounce back for the 2nd half.
If you have any more questions, make sure to contact us on Twitter: @Rotosavants and @fenwayhotspur if you want to reach me directly. Good luck!
Friday, July 15
Daily Roto Pickups: July 15th
Mark Trumbo 38% owned - I've talked about Trumbo's value before and while he's borderline replacement value in league with no CI his blend of solid power and occasional speed is definitely valuable in medium to deep leagues.
Michael Brantely 39% owned - Brantley's production so far has been more valuable according to baseball monster than that of OF's like Johnny Damon, Brett Gardner, Colby Rasmus, Bobby Abreu, and Ichiro. I'm not saying that he'll continue to be better than those guys but he's definitely ownable in more than 2/5ths of leagues.
Ryan Ludwick 35% owned - Ludwick is ranked just a bit below Brantley in terms of current value but most of that value is tied up in his 55 RBI. I would definitely be hesitant to pick a guy based on a stat that isn't much in his control, especially a guy who plays for the anemic Padres, but if you really need RBI then he's worth a flier.
Koji Uehara 22% owned - Even if you're not in a Holds league Uehara definitely has value. His peripherals are simply excellent, K/9 well over 11 and BB/9 under 2.00, and he's setting up for one of the worst closers in baseball. Count on him maintaining an ERA under 3.00 and WHIP under 1.00. If he starts to get the ball in the ninth it's just a bonus.
Mike Adams 36% owned - Speaking of RP, Mike Adams has been one of the most effective in the game for quite some time. His peripherals aren't quite as otherworldly as Uehara's but rock solid setup men are definitely an inefficiency in most FBB leagues. According to baseball monster Adams has provided standard league value of a borderline top 100 player so far this year. Any hitter, SP, or CL with such value would have been snatched up long ago; people just aren't valuing non-closer RP properly. You can take advantage of that inefficiency with guys like Adams and Uehara.
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Michael Brantely 39% owned - Brantley's production so far has been more valuable according to baseball monster than that of OF's like Johnny Damon, Brett Gardner, Colby Rasmus, Bobby Abreu, and Ichiro. I'm not saying that he'll continue to be better than those guys but he's definitely ownable in more than 2/5ths of leagues.
Ryan Ludwick 35% owned - Ludwick is ranked just a bit below Brantley in terms of current value but most of that value is tied up in his 55 RBI. I would definitely be hesitant to pick a guy based on a stat that isn't much in his control, especially a guy who plays for the anemic Padres, but if you really need RBI then he's worth a flier.
Koji Uehara 22% owned - Even if you're not in a Holds league Uehara definitely has value. His peripherals are simply excellent, K/9 well over 11 and BB/9 under 2.00, and he's setting up for one of the worst closers in baseball. Count on him maintaining an ERA under 3.00 and WHIP under 1.00. If he starts to get the ball in the ninth it's just a bonus.
Mike Adams 36% owned - Speaking of RP, Mike Adams has been one of the most effective in the game for quite some time. His peripherals aren't quite as otherworldly as Uehara's but rock solid setup men are definitely an inefficiency in most FBB leagues. According to baseball monster Adams has provided standard league value of a borderline top 100 player so far this year. Any hitter, SP, or CL with such value would have been snatched up long ago; people just aren't valuing non-closer RP properly. You can take advantage of that inefficiency with guys like Adams and Uehara.
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Thursday, July 14
Are the Blue Jays Still Aggressive on the Base Paths?
Earlier this season I wrote a post about the speed exhibited by some of the Toronto Blue Jays here in which I wondered whether John Farrell's recklessness with his slower players would continue. Just a few weeks into the season guys like Aaron Hill and Travis Snider already had five steals. Some of us were wondering whether the new Jays philosophy involved ignoring the CS stat or whether Ferrell was just trying to use the element of surprise with those players before easing back on the throttle.
Looking back from the midpoint of the season we can see that this surge wasn't a John Farrell thing, it was an Aaron Hill thing. Hill now has eleven stolen bases, five more than his previous season high, and is on pace to swipe somewhere in the mid to high teens. If Hill is looking to partially compensate for his lack of power this year by running more then I'm all for it, after all, he's only been caught once.
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Looking back from the midpoint of the season we can see that this surge wasn't a John Farrell thing, it was an Aaron Hill thing. Hill now has eleven stolen bases, five more than his previous season high, and is on pace to swipe somewhere in the mid to high teens. If Hill is looking to partially compensate for his lack of power this year by running more then I'm all for it, after all, he's only been caught once.
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Tuesday, July 12
The All-Star Break
So we've reached the (traditional) half-way mark in the baseball season. Players have risen and fallen (Bautista and Hanley, for example,) been called up and sent down (Trout and Rivera,) and gotten injured and recovered (Lester and Brian Wilson.)
Whether your team is at the top of the heap or looking up at the pack now's the time to reassess and make whatever changes are needed for the long haul. But before then let's take a look at some of the more interesting stories in fantasy baseball in the first half o '11.
Whether your team is at the top of the heap or looking up at the pack now's the time to reassess and make whatever changes are needed for the long haul. But before then let's take a look at some of the more interesting stories in fantasy baseball in the first half o '11.
Monday, June 27
Lopsided Keeper Value On The Block?
We recently received an email from a reader about trading to lock up the title this year in a keeper league. Specifically, Mikey is wondering whether to trade away Jose Bautista in order to strengthen his SP rotation. Mikey is currently well ahead in HR, RBI, R, and TB, while leading in OBP but not by much. Understandably, he's been thinking about dealing from his strength, offense, to get a SP. He's currently in 1st place but doesn't feel like his lead is safe. The kicker is that he's playing in a keeper league in which he'd be able to keep Bautista in the 16th round next year. The best offers he's received so far are;
Deal 1) Bautista + Lohse for A-Gon + David Price
Deal 2) Bautista + Scherzer + Garza for Ryan Howard + Felix + Scott Baker
Mikey's current SP rotation is: Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Hudson, Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Max Scherzer, James Shields, and Erik Bedard
Below the Savants each take a crack at this particular puzzle.
Aaron: In a word, no and no. I think you can reject the second offer out of hand since the Bautista side is probably a touch stronger even without any consideration of the keeper value. I love Scott Baker but Garza and Scherzer have real value and while I'd rather have King Felix than either you're really not getting ahead much on this deal. Deal #1 is definitely better for you as A-Gon has a better track record and will almost certainly put up better RBI numbers than Bautista while you get a big upgrade going from Lohse to Price. Still, I can't get over the lost keeper value you're giving up. I ran a study on round values for one of my slightly deeper leagues earlier this year and found that a 16th round pick is worth about $6. If we assume that in your league a 16th round pick is worth about $5 and Bautista will be a $40-45 player next year then you're giving up $35-40 in value by trading him. Sure, that value doesn't affect this year's race but it's real value that you're losing, and that's assuming that you keep him for only one year. For this trade to be worth it I think you'd have to be getting a Halladay or Lincecum along with A-Gon, not just a David Price. Obviously that means that it's pretty unlikely that you can get a deal done that's good enough for both parties but that's a fact of life when it comes to keeper leagues. Just like in real baseball contract realities can make it very difficult to acquire certain players.
So try to hold on for this year, maybe targeting under-performing aces like Chris Carpenter, Ricky Nolasco, or Ryan Dempster. The head start you'll get for next year will more than make up for any nail-biting that you might have to endure over the next three months or so.
Lee: My feeling is simple. Keeper values exist to leverage a championship run. I'll always trade an awesome keeper if it locks up a win. A real win is much greater than 3 or 4 hypothetical ones. Still, there is some common sense to be had about how lopsided a keeper value can be.
Let's look at the first trade, specifically. Basically, you're trading the rights to Joey Bats in the 16th round for David Price; I say this because we'll make the assumption that Adrian and Bautista will be a wash for the remainder of the season.
My concern? Is one pitcher's 15-18 starts really going to help your ERA/WHIP that much, or are you just hedging your bets on cheap wins?
If we assume you're middle of the road, I'll peg your ERA at 3.8, and WHIP at 1.3, and you've used about half your innings. If we assume your 6 other starters perform as they have to this point, Price's FIP+xFIP average of 2.9 will only account for 1/7th of your remaining innings.
I'll pick a decent IP average, 1400. This means Price has saved you 10 ER for the 2nd half of the season over a pitcher with a 3.8 ERA. He's dropped your ERA by .1 by himself for the season.
I think if you deal Bautista, getting multiple pitchers to offset your expected results in the second half would be smarter. Manager B, if talked into having the deal be Howard, Felix, and Baker for only Joey Bats may be a starting point. Make sure you hammer home to trade partners just how valuable Joey Bats is. A comparable, but lesser, bat plus two SP upgrades would be the only fair option you could start with.
When you consider 2012 and beyond, I think his extremely favorable keeper value makes him virtually untradeable; you simply won't get enough back if your pitching needs that much help. Sit on him, and deal a different piece of strength for a more fair upgrade. No matter how much another manager gives up (like the equivalent bat in trade A), if they are already out of it, they have nothing to lose.
Only considering this year, I think if you have to pick one of these deals, I'd still pick Deal A. Why? As I said before, you're basically getting David Price for free because you'd be dropping Lohse anyway. Even though you lose the keeper value, it's irrelevant if you win the league (and if you have other options). Deal B has you trading two buy low candidates, one of which could easily match Baker in the 2nd half, in return for a downgrade in hitting and a modest bump by Felix? That trade would actually be very fair if Bautista didn't have an absurd keeper value, but it's clearly the lesser of the two.
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Deal 1) Bautista + Lohse for A-Gon + David Price
Deal 2) Bautista + Scherzer + Garza for Ryan Howard + Felix + Scott Baker
Mikey's current SP rotation is: Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Hudson, Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Max Scherzer, James Shields, and Erik Bedard
Below the Savants each take a crack at this particular puzzle.
Aaron: In a word, no and no. I think you can reject the second offer out of hand since the Bautista side is probably a touch stronger even without any consideration of the keeper value. I love Scott Baker but Garza and Scherzer have real value and while I'd rather have King Felix than either you're really not getting ahead much on this deal. Deal #1 is definitely better for you as A-Gon has a better track record and will almost certainly put up better RBI numbers than Bautista while you get a big upgrade going from Lohse to Price. Still, I can't get over the lost keeper value you're giving up. I ran a study on round values for one of my slightly deeper leagues earlier this year and found that a 16th round pick is worth about $6. If we assume that in your league a 16th round pick is worth about $5 and Bautista will be a $40-45 player next year then you're giving up $35-40 in value by trading him. Sure, that value doesn't affect this year's race but it's real value that you're losing, and that's assuming that you keep him for only one year. For this trade to be worth it I think you'd have to be getting a Halladay or Lincecum along with A-Gon, not just a David Price. Obviously that means that it's pretty unlikely that you can get a deal done that's good enough for both parties but that's a fact of life when it comes to keeper leagues. Just like in real baseball contract realities can make it very difficult to acquire certain players.
So try to hold on for this year, maybe targeting under-performing aces like Chris Carpenter, Ricky Nolasco, or Ryan Dempster. The head start you'll get for next year will more than make up for any nail-biting that you might have to endure over the next three months or so.
Lee: My feeling is simple. Keeper values exist to leverage a championship run. I'll always trade an awesome keeper if it locks up a win. A real win is much greater than 3 or 4 hypothetical ones. Still, there is some common sense to be had about how lopsided a keeper value can be.
Let's look at the first trade, specifically. Basically, you're trading the rights to Joey Bats in the 16th round for David Price; I say this because we'll make the assumption that Adrian and Bautista will be a wash for the remainder of the season.
My concern? Is one pitcher's 15-18 starts really going to help your ERA/WHIP that much, or are you just hedging your bets on cheap wins?
If we assume you're middle of the road, I'll peg your ERA at 3.8, and WHIP at 1.3, and you've used about half your innings. If we assume your 6 other starters perform as they have to this point, Price's FIP+xFIP average of 2.9 will only account for 1/7th of your remaining innings.
I'll pick a decent IP average, 1400. This means Price has saved you 10 ER for the 2nd half of the season over a pitcher with a 3.8 ERA. He's dropped your ERA by .1 by himself for the season.
I think if you deal Bautista, getting multiple pitchers to offset your expected results in the second half would be smarter. Manager B, if talked into having the deal be Howard, Felix, and Baker for only Joey Bats may be a starting point. Make sure you hammer home to trade partners just how valuable Joey Bats is. A comparable, but lesser, bat plus two SP upgrades would be the only fair option you could start with.
When you consider 2012 and beyond, I think his extremely favorable keeper value makes him virtually untradeable; you simply won't get enough back if your pitching needs that much help. Sit on him, and deal a different piece of strength for a more fair upgrade. No matter how much another manager gives up (like the equivalent bat in trade A), if they are already out of it, they have nothing to lose.
Only considering this year, I think if you have to pick one of these deals, I'd still pick Deal A. Why? As I said before, you're basically getting David Price for free because you'd be dropping Lohse anyway. Even though you lose the keeper value, it's irrelevant if you win the league (and if you have other options). Deal B has you trading two buy low candidates, one of which could easily match Baker in the 2nd half, in return for a downgrade in hitting and a modest bump by Felix? That trade would actually be very fair if Bautista didn't have an absurd keeper value, but it's clearly the lesser of the two.
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Daily Roto Pickups: June 27th
Corey Luebke SP, SD, (6%) - Luebke has taken over the fifth stop in the rotation for the Padres and there's every reason to believe that he can help your fantasy team as long as he can hold onto the spot. We have to be a bit careful with his numbers in the big leagues since most of them came out of the bullpen but it's hard to argue with a career K/9 above 9.0 and solid control. He was primarily a starter in the minors where he showed excellent control even if his K rate didn't approach what we've seen so far this year. Pitchers usually lose some of their statistical shine when moving to the rotation but even if that happens to Luebke he can always fall back on the bonus of playing in a fantastic pitcher's park.
Chase Headley 3B, SD, (27%) - Headley has always been a borderline 3B in fantasy leagues. He has less power than you'd want from a CI (12 HR in 156 in '09 has been his season high) but more speed than you'd expect from the hot corner (17 last year.) The interesting thing about his line this year is that his BB% is creeping up into the very good level, meaning that he'll have that many more opportunities to swipe bags. If you've already got a cushion in HR's and need a CI who's going to get you some Steals while not ruining your BA you could do worse than Headley.
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Chase Headley 3B, SD, (27%) - Headley has always been a borderline 3B in fantasy leagues. He has less power than you'd want from a CI (12 HR in 156 in '09 has been his season high) but more speed than you'd expect from the hot corner (17 last year.) The interesting thing about his line this year is that his BB% is creeping up into the very good level, meaning that he'll have that many more opportunities to swipe bags. If you've already got a cushion in HR's and need a CI who's going to get you some Steals while not ruining your BA you could do worse than Headley.
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Friday, June 24
Fantasy Crystal Ball
Don't forget that during this time of the fantasy year that trades, daily pickups, and keeper considerations are in full focus.
Having problems trying to fit that last piece into your team? Deciding if you're a buyer dumping keepers, or a seller trying to stack the deck for 2012? Contact the team and we'll guide you along up until your league's trading deadline.
Email any question to the team at: TroyPatterson@RotoSavants.com
Contact us on Twitter at @Rotosavants, @TroyPatterson (Troy) and @fenwayhotspur (Lee) for quick hit questions as well!
Having problems trying to fit that last piece into your team? Deciding if you're a buyer dumping keepers, or a seller trying to stack the deck for 2012? Contact the team and we'll guide you along up until your league's trading deadline.
Email any question to the team at: TroyPatterson@RotoSavants.com
Contact us on Twitter at @Rotosavants, @TroyPatterson (Troy) and @fenwayhotspur (Lee) for quick hit questions as well!
Daily Roto Pickups: June 24th
Jordan Lyles, SP Hou (1.7%): A victim of his poor strand rate (67%), Lyles only really had one "rough" outing, his start in San Diego (ironic, right?) on June 5th. Lyles has been returning above average strikeouts, and has an excellent walk rate to this point (1.8 BB/9). While the Astros offense couldn't bail him out on Wednesday, 3 ER versus the Rangers was an positive step forward for his confidence. Wins may be scarce, but the numbers look encouraging to me, and Lyles should be available in pretty much every league. Feel free to sit him versus elite offenses or in tough parks (remember, Minute Maid is neutral!) for you mixed leagues, but NL-Only clubs can easily view him as a possible 5th starter.
AJ Pierzynski, C CWS (9.8%): Looking for a quick fill in for your catcher (that's you, Mike Napoli owners), or a hot second catcher? AJ's been raking lately to the tune of .377/.483/.860 in June. is he going to keep it up? Probably not for much longer, but with how volatile catchers' performances can be, it's good to ride the hot hand if you need it.
Jemile Weeks, 2B OAK (21%): Surprised that his ownership is so low? So am I. Weeks has posted a .867 OPS in his first 14 games at a position that's still full of slow starters (Uggla, Hill), and it's almost July! With Ellis really struggling, Weeks will probably hold the position for the duration of the season. Weeks doesn't quite have the statistical dominance in his minor league career like some other rookies that have been called up recently, so I would be thinking about parlaying him to some teams selling for next year if his success continues over the next month or so.
You can find Lee on Twitter at @fenwayhotspur and the team at @Rotosavants
AJ Pierzynski, C CWS (9.8%): Looking for a quick fill in for your catcher (that's you, Mike Napoli owners), or a hot second catcher? AJ's been raking lately to the tune of .377/.483/.860 in June. is he going to keep it up? Probably not for much longer, but with how volatile catchers' performances can be, it's good to ride the hot hand if you need it.
Jemile Weeks, 2B OAK (21%): Surprised that his ownership is so low? So am I. Weeks has posted a .867 OPS in his first 14 games at a position that's still full of slow starters (Uggla, Hill), and it's almost July! With Ellis really struggling, Weeks will probably hold the position for the duration of the season. Weeks doesn't quite have the statistical dominance in his minor league career like some other rookies that have been called up recently, so I would be thinking about parlaying him to some teams selling for next year if his success continues over the next month or so.
You can find Lee on Twitter at @fenwayhotspur and the team at @Rotosavants
Thursday, June 23
Just Beachy
As I'm writing this, the top of the sixth inning just ended, and Brandon Beachy has held the Blue Jays in check today; 11 strikeouts, 4 hits, 2 walks, 1 earned run(solo HR by Jose Bautista).
At the beginning of the season, Beachy was an afterthought. He was supposed to be a quick band-aid while the highly touted Mike Minor got healthy, and came out of the gate firing on all cylinders. Before today's matchup with Toronto, Beachy has sported all-star caliber numbers, even with the oblique strain.
Beachy's 9.34 K/9 ranks 9th among players with at least 40 innings. His K/BB ratio of 3.83 ranks 12th. While only possessing a slightly favorable BABIP(.267) and HR/FB%(8.9%) for the current season , the rest of Beachy's warning indicator statistics (LOB%) look in line with league norms, which has kept his ERA and FIP within percentage points of each other. Pretty impressive over Beachy's 8th start, especially considering the brevity of the final one where he left injured. All in all, this is a very promising month and a half of work form Beachy, and something that savvy manager should have pounced on when rivals started to jettison him once he hit the disabled list.
One concern I tend to always have with any starting pitcher centers around their ground ball rates. For FIP and xFIP minded individuals like me, it's well been established that even though the opposing BABIP on ground balls trend higher than flyballs, the run expectancy for groundballs is more favorable. This is why with the exception of a few flyball outliers, pitchers who establish the Big 3 metrics in their favor (K/9, BB/9, GB%) have a better chance to succeed over their counterparts once statistical noise settles down. So naturally, I raised an eyebrow seeing Beachy's paltry 31% ground ball rate.
We've seen pitchers with poor groundball rates florish and be part of baseball's elite. Some of the more notable repeaters like Ted Lilly, Matt Cain, and Johan Santana have excelled in favorable parks. Others have had stellar outfield defense behind them to drag down those would be doubles in the gap (Jarrod Washburn, 2009). For the repeaters in this group though, they offset a lack of groundball rate with high strikeout totals, low walks, and in elite cases like Santana, Cain, Jered Weaver, and even 2011 Scott Baker(only owned in 62% of ESPN leagues, go get him), an extremely high infield fly ball rate* tends to help support lower BABIPs as well. Beachy satisfies the first two requirements, but his IFFB% isn't in the high 14s like Weaver or Santana. A slightly above average 10.9% can't be the entire reason his early success has blossomed.
Looking at Beachy's game log, April 30th jumped out at me: a home game against the, at the time, hot hitting Cardinals. If you discount Beachy's large 15/2 FB/GB split in this game, his GB% for the season rises to 36%. When looking at Beachy's other 7 starts, the April 30th split does look like an outlier. After Wednesday's game (Beachy was pulled after 6 and got the W) gets put in the books and we see his FB/GB split, we'll have one more data point to judge against, hopefully helping us uncover whether this dominating performance still has Beachy closer to the Lillys than the Halladays of starting pitchers.
Regardless of how curious I am to see Beachy's groundball rate shake out, you have to be happy with him to this point if you were lucky enough to spend that $1 at auction, draft him late, or snag him on the wire. Beachy is currently owned in only 29.6% of ESPN leagues. That's crazy. Go pick him up if you have the opportunity.
After a brief first half season sabbatical to attend to newest addition to my family's roster, I decided to settle back in with a player I was monitoring early in the offseason and was lucky enough to obtain in my competitive auction for only $1. I'm looking forward to sharing with you all again.
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